#ustd

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2026?
#BTC走势分析

Major investment banks' predictions for interest rate cuts in 2026:
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, etc.: Expect a cut of 50 basis points, with rates dropping to 3.00%-3.25%. Citigroup: Expect a cut of 75 basis points, with rates dropping to 2.75%-3.0%.

JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank: Expect only a cut of 25 basis points.
HSBC, Standard Chartered: Expect no cuts for the year, with rates maintained at 3.50%-3.75%. Macquarie Bank: Even predicts a possible rate hike in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Harmak: Believes current rates are sufficient and may remain unchanged before spring 2026.
Williams: States that after the December cut, policy is in a "very favorable position," requiring more data support in the future.
Milan: Believes the labor market is deteriorating and needs accommodative policy support.

Market reaction:
The probability of a December rate cut surged to 87%. Silver prices broke through $60 per ounce, reaching a historic high. The Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 and lowered its inflation expectations. Core PCE is expected to be 2.5% in 2026 and drop to 2.1% in 2027.

Policy divergence:
Three dissenting votes were recorded at the December meeting, indicating internal disagreements on the pace of rate cuts.
Powell emphasized that policy will be highly dependent on data, with no preset path.