Parallel to the events in Venezuela, the tension around Iran is sharply rising.
Mass protests are starting there, and the authorities are using force against the demonstrators.
Donald Trump has already stated publicly: if the shootings continue, the USA is ready to intervene and 'protect democracy.'
At the same time, Israel is preparing for a new wave of escalation.
Important point: Iran and Venezuela are strategic partners of China.
As a result, a dangerous geopolitical chain forms with the potential for rapid escalation.
This largely explains the parabolic rise of gold in recent months. It is not a coincidence and not 'just inflation'.
Is a correction possible on Monday?
Possible.
But not because 'it has to be', but because such events can trigger risk-off:
the dollar and bonds up → risk assets under pressure.
The typical market logic here is simple:
if the information was at the rumor level and without confirmations — it is often not priced in, and reassessment occurs already on the facts;
if the market moved on expectations, the first reaction usually looks like a sharp spike (wick, squeeze), after which the price returns to a more sober assessment.
A separate nuance
Crypto trades 24/7, traditional markets do not.
Therefore, we often see two phases:
weekends — thin liquidity, sharp movements, and wicks;
opening of stock markets — the second wave of reassessment due to the dollar, yields, and oil.
How this can pressure crypto
Through three channels:
1. Risk-off
Geopolitical escalation increases demand for cash and defensive assets → pressure on risk in the moment.
2. Oil → inflation expectations → rates
If the market starts to price in supply risks and oil goes up, a 'hawkish' backdrop may return.
For crypto, this is usually a negative.
3. Liquidity and leverage
On such news, the market rarely establishes a trend.
More often — it unwinds leverage: impulses, squeezes, then stabilization.
What to watch right now
WTI / Brent — rise = strengthening risk-off
DXY and UST (10Y) yields — rise = headwind for risk
S&P futures / VIX — overall sentiment