Yesterday, a military action broke out, causing a portion of people to be very anxious and restless. Especially for users holding positions in the market, whether in spot or contracts, there is a high sensitivity to all news. We cannot elaborate on military matters, but each of you needs to have your own judgment regarding its impact on the cryptocurrency space. Firstly, Venezuela is not a country that holds a large amount of cryptocurrency; even if such a country were to collapse, the impact on the cryptocurrency market wouldn't be significant. The market most likely to be affected would be its own specialty energy; there is no need to frighten oneself with panic. This upward trend is not something that a small country can influence.
The countries that can affect the trend of the cryptocurrency circle are actually just a few: the U.S., Japan, South Korea, ourselves and Russia, and the EU system. As long as there is no ongoing war that affects the global landscape, it will not create too much bad news. On the contrary, after this incident, Lao Cui's first reaction is that the appreciation of dollar assets has become a trend. There will likely be more and more small countries expressing their stance, and pro-American countries will increase. From A7's personal perspective, at least it makes the U.S.-led cryptocurrency market easier to gain legal rights among small countries. This is probably the reason for today's rise in the cryptocurrency circle. There are also some friends who cited last year's conflicts between Israel and Palestine and between Israel and Iran to Lao Cui as examples, but these are different concepts. Firstly, countries like Israel and Iran both accept cryptocurrency payments. In other words, they themselves own crypto assets, and the same goes for Russia and Ukraine. Such turmoil can directly impact the cryptocurrency circle.
Because everyone cannot determine whether they will discard their cryptocurrencies in exchange for other resources, a large amount of market sentiment will emerge during this period. For example, at the end of 2024, Lao Cui mentioned that a batch of Bitcoin in the country would be liquidated. From December onwards, until March 2025, a new low was formed. Compared to the market value of the cryptocurrency circle, it cannot really move the market. However, everything done by countries of this size is traceable. This year it was explicitly prohibited in the cryptocurrency market, which is the main reason that can affect the cryptocurrency market. As users in the cryptocurrency circle, we must remain objective. The Americans demonstrate strength, and the assets making money are American assets, which can also be considered part of the current cryptocurrency circle. Since everyone has chosen to align with the cryptocurrency circle, we should focus on American measures. The key is substantial data. The U.S. currently holds over $30 billion in cryptocurrency assets, of which 97% of the holdings are BTC. This is a state-owned account, not Trump's private property.
Entering January, everyone just needs to focus on two data points: one is the non-farm payroll data on the 9th, and the other is the CPI on the 13th. Currently, January already has no possibility of interest rate cuts; we can only wait for these two pieces of data to estimate last year's inflation data in the U.S. The only uncontrollable factor is the data from October, so when estimating, at least one percentage point should be adjusted downward. The biggest issue is the employment rate. From the data that has been released, the U.S. strategy regarding employment in 2025 is a failure. This is the most powerful evidence supporting interest rate cuts in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, from the latest statements of Federal Reserve officials, Paulson mentioned that there may be another interest rate cut later this year; this statement seems beneficial for rate cuts but is actually delaying the players. At least from his words, we can hear that there will not be another rate cut in the short term. The only hope may be postponed until March or even later, so we should not expect too much from interest rate cuts.
At this point, perhaps for those shorting, it is an opportunity. Don't think that it is impossible to short in a bullish state; this concept does not exist. Users with small positions or insufficient funds need to grasp the oscillating range to profit. Including the initiation of this market, it will not happen overnight and will have a certain depth of correction. The market will likely fluctuate around the new high and will certainly experience a deep dive before a complete explosion, until more than 70% of long positions are liquidated. Therefore, whether you are shorting or going long, you can take advantage of this washout to build positions or exit. Overall, looking at the performance of the market, XRP's four-hour inflow is second only to BTC, followed by DOGE. The growth state is also more prominent in these two cryptocurrencies. Currently, SOL's performance is relatively poor, but it shows signs of hitting a new high. For those wanting to enter this type of altcoin, it is advisable to wait for a pullback after the peak.
A7 Summary: Overall, the trend has not changed, and there is not much to elaborate on. At least this year's spot performance will be better than in 2025. Everyone needs to be a bit patient; for contract users, Bitcoin has shown signs of stabilizing around 91000, and Ethereum has also shown a new trend, likely to hit a new high. The pressure position for the next stage was given to everyone yesterday, so continue to focus on the new high. If Bitcoin can break the new high for the next stage, it will be around 94950, and Ethereum around 3600. As long as it breaks, it basically announces the return of the bull market. If it cannot break, it may continue to oscillate for a while. For example, the meeting date for interest rate cuts is still far off; the interest rate decision will only be announced on the 29th, so just avoid this date!