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#山寨季将至？ The current altcoin season is not the traditional 'altcoin season'; it is merely a structural local rebound. The widespread, high liquidity altcoin season has not yet arrived.

Core Judgment (Eastern US January 5)

- Data below expectations: The altcoin season index is approximately 39 (neutral to slightly cold), the Fear and Greed Index is at 26 (fear zone), and BTC dominance remains high at **59%**, with no large-scale capital outflows.
- Market Characteristics: Currently, there is mainly a rebound from oversold conditions + Meme/hotspot concept impulses, such as PEPE and RENDER experiencing short-term surges, with a general rise not covering the entire market; liquidity is tight, and institutional funds are still concentrated in BTC/ETH ETFs, with retail investors lacking the capacity to absorb.
- Macroeconomics and Cycles: The 'January Effect' brings short-term inflows, but the transmission of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and liquidity easing will take time. A comprehensive altcoin season is more likely to occur at the end of Q1 to the beginning of Q2 in 2026, requiring BTC to stabilize at a high level, capital rotation, and improved liquidity to resonate. $XRP
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$ETH
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