XRP's price has risen approximately 33% from its December 31st low point and increased by about 11% over the past 24 hours. This movement is one of the strongest short-term rebounds for XRP in recent months, occurring after a prolonged period of consolidation.
This rally has improved the overall price outlook for XRP. However, full confirmation has not yet been achieved. Technical momentum is strengthening, but on-chain signals indicate that the market has entered a sensitive profit-taking zone. Whether XRP can rise further now depends on price action near key resistance levels.
Crossing and volume signals... Is the price outlook strengthening?
XRP's rebound began after a triple bottom formed around $1.77. This range has served as a support level multiple times and is now the structural foundation of this rally.
Momentum indicators are turning more favorable. The 20-day moving average is gradually approaching the 50-day moving average. Moving averages assign greater weight to recent prices. When the faster moving average crosses above the slower one, it typically signals a shift in upward momentum. When a confirmed bullish crossover occurs, it historically supports the idea that a rebound is not just short-term but part of a sustained trend.
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Trading volume movements cautiously support this view. On-Balance Volume (OBV) tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of an asset. Currently, OBV has broken above a downward trendline, indicating that buying pressure is actively participating in the breakout. However, since OBV has not yet recorded a clear peak, it shows that although XRP prices are rising, buying pressure is not rapidly intensifying.
Additionally, the upward momentum of OBV has somewhat slowed around $2.41. As highlighted in the chart, long candle wicks at this level indicate that selling pressure could re-emerge.
These signals are improving the outlook for XRP prices, but further confirmation at higher price levels remains essential.
On-chain data, continued accumulation... Rising profit-taking pressure
On-chain data provides a more granular view of market conditions.
Long-term holders continue to accumulate. Long-term holders are wallets that have held XRP for extended periods and historically have low sell frequency. Since December 30, the net holdings of this group have increased from about 90 million XRP per day to as high as 470 million XRP per day. Net accumulation during the rally has increased by over 420%, confirming sustained confidence.
Meanwhile, profit-taking pressure is also increasing. The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) of long-term holders measures the level of unrealized gains held by long-term holders. NUPL has risen again to a level similar to early December this year.
Around 0.48~0.49, XRP experienced approximately a 14% correction over about 9 days at the time. This does not necessarily mean it will repeat, but it suggests re-entry into a past zone where profit-taking has increased.
In particular, the accumulation pace by holders has slowed over the past two days. This can be confirmed in the previously mentioned indicators. While long-term holders continue to increase their holdings, the rate of growth has slowed since January 4. This suggests that buyers are becoming more cautious as prices and NUPL rise.
XRP price outlook hinges on the $2.41 buying wall
All technical and on-chain signals are now converging around the $2.41 area.
The cost basis distribution heatmap highlights this range as a key area of supply concentration. The cost basis reflects where coins were previously purchased. Approximately 1.56 billion XRP was accumulated between $2.39 and $2.41. If the price returns to this range, many holders may sell at break-even, increasing resistance. The earlier mentioned XRP price chart also emphasizes this resistance zone.
This explains why XRP stalled around $2.41, with OBV flattening out and NUPL continuing to rise.
For the bullish scenario to remain valid, XRP must clearly break above $2.41 on a daily closing basis. If this condition is met, the overhead supply pressure will weaken, and the next target would be around $2.69—approximately a 13% further increase from the current price.
If XRP fails to recover above $2.41, the risk of decline increases. The first support level is around $2.26, followed by deeper support near $1.90. As long as the price holds above $1.77, any correction will not alter the overall structure.
While XRP's uptrend shows momentum, it has now entered a critical test phase. The key to future XRP price predictions lies not in simple indicators, but in whether buying pressure can reliably convert the $2.41 resistance level into a strong support level.