Bitcoin could be far from finished with downside, warns analyst CryptoBullet, who is forecasting a deep correction in 2026 after the market’s recent slide. Quick snapshot - BTC has fallen more than 32.5% from last year’s all-time high above $126,000 down toward the mid-$80,000s. It has since recovered slightly and is trading above $90,000. - CryptoBullet predicts another significant bear phase in 2026, with scenarios that could push Bitcoin as low as $35,000–$40,000. Why the pessimist call? Realized Price and historical patterns CryptoBullet’s outlook hinges on Bitcoin’s Realized Price — the on-chain metric that averages the price at which all circulating BTC last moved. Traders and analysts often treat Realized Price as a structural support/resistance reference during bear markets. Looking back, Bitcoin has repeatedly plunged below its Realized Price during major drawdowns: roughly 66% in 2011, 48% in 2015, 35% in 2018 and 33% in 2022. That pattern, he argues, suggests future bear markets are likely to breach Realized Price again before a bottom forms. Two downside scenarios 1) Moderate-to-severe drop: With Realized Price currently around $56,000 and long-term volatility shrinking, CryptoBullet thinks the next drawdown may be less extreme than some prior cycles. He estimates a fall of 24%–31% below Realized Price, which would put a likely bottom in the $40,000–$43,000 range. 2) Deep correction / worst case: If the market repeats a 2022-style 33% slide below Realized Price, BTC could trade near $37,400. Looking further into 2026, he projects Realized Price could soften to $53,000–$54,000 by Q3–Q4; a similar 33% breach then would push Bitcoin toward roughly $35,000 — the deepest downside he considers reasonable based on historical behavior. A trend toward lower volatility CryptoBullet also points to a long-term compression in the gap between market price and Realized Price — from about a 66% divergence in 2011 to roughly 33% in 2022 — as evidence that future drawdowns may be smaller in percentage terms even if they still breach on-chain support zones. Chart confirmation The analyst’s accompanying chart highlights prior bear-market collapses that followed price slips below the Realized Price line, reinforcing his view that the metric is a recurring reference point in bottoms formation. Bottom line CryptoBullet’s thesis is clear: history and on-chain metrics argue that BTC is likely to revisit (or break below) Realized Price in the next major bear phase, with plausible bottoms ranging from about $43,000 down to an extreme of $35,000 in 2026. As always, this is one analyst’s scenario — markets can and do deviate from historical patterns. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news