Quantum computing could threaten more than just stolen wallets — it may put Bitcoin’s very security model at risk, warns David Duong, Coinbase’s global head of investment research. Why it matters Duong highlights two distinct quantum-era dangers to Bitcoin: - Signature cracking: Quantum algorithms such as Shor’s could, in principle, derive private keys from publicly visible public keys, allowing attackers to forge signatures and drain funds. - Quantum mining advantage: A sufficiently powerful quantum miner might solve proof-of-work puzzles far faster than classical rigs, disrupting block production and mining incentives. How big is the exposure? Roughly one-third of Bitcoin’s supply—about 6.51 million BTC—sits in address types where public keys are already revealed on-chain. That exposure mainly stems from address reuse and older wallet formats, meaning those coins would be the most vulnerable if a large, fault-tolerant quantum machine ever appears. Near-term vs. long-term risk Experts stress that today’s quantum hardware is far too small and error-prone to break Bitcoin’s cryptography. The real concern is a future “Q-day” when machines become large and stable enough to run Shor’s algorithm at scale. Timelines are contested: some researchers predict decades, others warn progress could accelerate faster than expected. Duong and peers judge the signature-cracking risk to be nearer-term in theory because it only requires targeting revealed public keys. Industry response and mitigation The conversation has already reached institutional investors and standards bodies. Some fund filings now disclose quantum risk, and organizations like NIST are advancing post-quantum cryptography standards for broader systems. Crypto engineers are exploring migration paths to quantum-resistant schemes, but changing Bitcoin’s protocol would be complex and require wide community consensus. Practical steps for users Until post-quantum solutions are available, the pragmatic advice is straightforward: - Avoid address reuse. - Move older balances (where public keys have been exposed) to fresh addresses when quantum-resistant options exist. There’s no easy, one-click fix for the entire ecosystem, experts caution. But awareness, good wallet hygiene, and preparatory standards work could blunt the impact if Q-day ever arrives. Featured image: Peter Hansen/Getty Images. Chart: TradingView. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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