🟢 Mon Outlook macro 2026 🇺🇸
- Commodity prices (metals) continue to rise, driven by demand related to AI and geopolitical risks
- Long-term rates (US10Y) remain high for some time
- PCE inflation stagnates
- Tech companies face margin compression (due to massive investments)
- AI improves margins in other sectors
- As a result, US GDP growth is capped
In a second phase,
- Commodity prices stop rising
- AI-related layoffs reduce consumer purchasing power
- The regime becomes slightly deflationary
- To support growth, the Fed resumes QE
