Trump’s Tariff Ruling & NFP Data: Will Bitcoin Crash or Rally Today?

The total crypto market cap is struggling near $3.11 trillion as of January 9, 2026. Today's dual macro catalysts represent the most significant risk event of the new year.

The "Jobs" Factor:
The U.S. labor market is in a "low hire, low fire" regime. With an expectation of 66k new jobs, the Federal Reserve’s path for 2026 is on the line. If unemployment ticks higher than 4.5%, recession fears may return, creating a "risk-off" environment for Bitcoin and altcoins.

The "Tariff" Wildcard:
Prediction markets like Polymarket show a 76% chance that the Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s emergency-power tariffs. A repeal would be a massive tailwind for global trade and risk sentiment, potentially propelling BTC back toward the $95,000 resistance zone.

Market Strategy:
Deribit shows over $2.2 billion in $BTC and $ETH options expiring today. This "Gamma" exposure, combined with the news, suggests a classic "whipsaw" movement—expect sharp moves in both directions before a trend is established.

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