U.S. job growth slowed in December, supporting #美联储 pause this month #降息

U.S. job growth in December was slower than market expectations, as businesses became more cautious in hiring.

Companies are hesitant to hire more staff due to uncertainty surrounding import tariff policies, and because investments related to artificial intelligence are expensive, companies prefer to allocate funds to technology rather than expanding their workforce.

However, the unemployment rate slightly declined to 4.4%, reinforcing market belief that the Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady this month instead of making adjustments.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data on Friday:

December non-farm employment added 50,000 jobs

November data revised downward to 56,000 jobs

While economists surveyed by Reuters previously expected

December should add 60,000 jobs

November was initially reported as 64,000 jobs

Market reaction

Stocks: After the employment data release, stock index futures continued to rise

Treasury bonds: U.S. Treasury yields rose briefly before回落
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is now around 4.18%, essentially unchanged

Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index's gain narrowed, with a slight increase of 0.1% recently

Analysts' assessment of non-farm employment

1. Lindsay Rosner | Head of Multi-Asset Fixed Income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management
A declining unemployment rate does not necessarily mean employment is improving
December non-farm employment was significantly below expectations, and the labor force participation rate declined simultaneously, indicating the overall labor force size is contracting.

A falling unemployment rate does not entirely reflect 'better employment'; part of the reason may be that unemployed individuals have exited the labor market and stopped seeking jobs.

2. Market bullish sentiment
Non-farm employment over the past three months has turned negative at -22,000, which is a warning signal

But the good news is: this creates room for future rate cuts by the Fed, which is actually bullish for the market

Moreover, note that this is the fourth quarter/holiday season, traditionally the strongest period for employment. If employment is still weakening now, concerns about corporate earnings will grow

3. Peter Cardillo | Chief Market Economist, Spartan Capital Securities
There may still be two rate cuts in 2026.

Signs of initial stabilization in the labor market

The Fed is likely to continue observing in the short term

Improved unemployment rate suggests that the November deterioration was likely a one-time factor, not a systemic issue

4. Todd Schoenberger | Chief Investment Officer, Crosscheck Management
Does not change the medium-term outlook for the labor market

New jobs added were approximately 50,000, below market consensus but higher than my personal expectation.

This is a lukewarm employment report that does not fundamentally alter the medium-term outlook for the labor market. The only slightly surprising element was the continued 0.3% wage growth, which was expected to be lower.

Overall, this report is unlikely to significantly push yields higher. The Fed will continue monitoring labor market developments before deciding whether to cut rates in the first quarter.

The quarterly average new jobs may approach 30,000 per month, providing sufficient room for rate cuts.

5. Jerry Tempelman | Vice President of Fixed Income Research, Mutual of America Capital Management
The recession narrative may re-emerge

This report brings closure to a year of employment anxiety and uncertainty

Continued weakening in the labor market may revive the recession narrative

But looking at it differently, this actually provides more justification for the Fed to cut rates again. The immediate market rally is normal, as the market treats monetary policy as 'fuel'

6. Brian Jacobsen | Chief Economist, Annex Wealth Management
Due to previous government shutdowns causing data confusion, this is the most informative employment report in three months

His judgment is: employment is indeed weak, which explains why rate cuts were needed by end of 2025, but it is not sufficient to support 'immediate rate cuts this month'.

7. Summary
Overall, no rate cut will happen now, but the mainstream expectation is

1–2 more rate cuts possible in 2026

Bullish for stocks and BTC, but not a strong, explosive利好

#非农 #特朗普 #U.S. Economy