Just now, the first non-farm payroll report for 2026 is out, directly contradicting previous optimistic expectations.
1. Data recap: Who is lying?🧐
New jobs (NFP): Only 50,000 added, far below the market expectation of 70,000. Even more striking, the data for the previous two months were significantly revised downward, with October revised to a shocking -173,000.
Unemployment rate: Unexpectedly dropped to 4.4% (previous 4.6%), marking the lowest level since last September.
Wage growth: Hourly wages rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year.
Interpretation: Job growth nearly stalled, yet the unemployment rate is falling, indicating a shrinking labor force participation rate. This is not a sign of a strong labor market, but rather that people are simply 'unwilling to work.'
2. Macro博弈: Is the rate cut dream over or accelerating? ⚖️
January rate cut probability is extremely low: Despite weak employment data, the market expects the Fed to likely hold rates steady at the end of January, as wages are still rising and unemployment is falling.
Dollar and bond markets: The DXY index is fluctuating around 98-99, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded to 4.2%. This suggests the market doesn't believe a recession has reached a 'crisis' stage yet.
3. Crypto perspective: Why has BTC climbed back above $90,000? 🚀
Sentiment: After the data release, BTC quickly stabilized above the $90,000 level. As long as there's no extreme recession signal (i.e., a sharp spike in unemployment), the market will interpret this as an excuse for a moderate rate cut.
Institutional play: Just like the large whales we've been tracking, such as 0xb317, they're focused on the major market move expected in Q1 2026. As long as the macro environment remains stable, short-term dips are just giving institutions 'cheap筹码'.
Summary:
This is a **'bad news is good news'** scenario. Weak jobs data means the Fed won't raise rates, while low unemployment suggests the economy hasn't collapsed. As long as BTC holds key levels, the rally before the end of January may not be over.
💬 Interaction:
Do you believe BTC will surge to new highs on the back of weak employment data, or are you concerned about the Fed turning hawkish in January? Share your strategy in the comments below! 👇