The current crypto cycle (this round after the 2024 halving) differs significantly from past cycles: it is no longer a simple four-year boom-bust cycle driven solely by 'halving + retail FOMO,' but has evolved into a mature long cycle dominated by 'institutional allocation + macro liquidity.'
In previous cycles (2012-2013, 2016-2017, 2020-2021), the core logic was supply shock (halving) + retail frenzy: BTC surged first → capital flowed into ETH → altcoins rallied broadly → leveraged speculation escalated → bubble burst with over 80% drawdown—classic four-year script almost identical each time. But this round (after the 2024 halving up to January 2026) has fundamentally different underlying conditions:
Institutional restructuring of dominance
Since 2024, the spot BTC/ETH ETF has accumulated inflows of over $100 billion, with institutions, listed companies (DAT model), and even sovereign funds beginning to view BTC as 'digital gold' for long-term allocation, rather than short-term speculation. The proportion of retail investors has significantly decreased, FOMO sentiment is far less than before, and market volatility has noticeably reduced. Institutions like Grayscale and Bernstein report bluntly: the traditional four-year cycle is unraveling, and the future resembles more of a 'slow bull + structural bull.'The diminishing marginal effect of halving + early overdraft
Before the 2024 halving, BTC reached a new high of $73,000 due to ETF expectations, with moderate gains after halving (currently oscillating around 30-70%). In 2025, there might even be a 'historical first' annual decline for the first time a year after halving. This indicates that supply shocks have been priced in ahead of time, and prices are more determined by the demand side (liquidity + policy + institutional rebalancing), rather than just the countdown to halving.Unprecedented differentiation, BTC stands strong, altcoins face 'twilight of the gods'
BTC, as the preferred asset for institutions, continues to absorb mainstream capital, with a high dominance rate; ETH is consolidating and under pressure during its transition period; most altcoins are facing liquidity exhaustion and a scarcity of real users, with only a few projects having sustainable income and compliant pathways having space to survive. Market characteristics in January 2026: BTC resiliently rebounds in the range of $88,000-$94,000, while altcoins struggle to follow suit.Macroeconomics and regulation become the new anchors
Expectations for the end of the Federal Reserve's QT, an interest rate cut cycle, and clearer U.S. regulations (market structure bill, stablecoin law, etc.) become the main variables. Grayscale predicts BTC will reach a new high in the first half of 2026, with Bernstein targeting $150,000; however, if liquidity tightens or the macro environment weakens, it's hard to predict short-term conditions, which is a probabilistic issue.It is slower, more stable, more differentiated, and more dependent on macroeconomics and policy. The year 2026, as the 'dawn of the institutional era,' could be a key year for the end of the old cycle and the difficult foundation of a new long bull market—BTC is expected to return to new highs, but do not expect a repeat of the 2017/2021 frenzy.
In simple terms: the old cycle relied on 'halving + retail dreaming of getting rich,' while the new cycle relies on 'institutional buying + institutional reconstruction.'