Friday, January 9, 2026, and the weekend, January 10, showed: the market is in a narrow range, where any event can shift the balance within minutes. Volatility remains uncontrolled, but expectations and risks stay high.
Focus is on two key events affecting liquidity, the dollar, and risk assets:
⏰ 1) US Labor Market: NFP as a catalyst
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report — not just numbers, but an indicator of economic momentum and investor confidence.
📊 Key data:
• Unemployment: 4.4% (expected 4.5%)
• New jobs (NFP): below forecast
🔍 What does it mean:
• the labor market remains strong, but the dynamics of job growth are slowing down
• the signal for the Fed is neutral: there is no urgent need to lower rates, but tight policy is still maintained
➡️ Conclusion: the market did not receive new momentum, but neither did it receive a reason for panic selling.
⚖️ 2) US Supreme Court and the tariff factor
No decision on emergency powers in tariff policy has been made yet.
🧭 Scenarios:
• Tariffs remain → inflationary pressure, strong dollar, limited growth of risk assets
• Tariffs are canceled → rapid reassessment of rates, potential positive for stocks and crypto assets
➡️ To date, the risk has not materialized, but it has not disappeared, leaving the market in a state of anticipation.
📉 Current state of the market (10.01.2026):
S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq are holding near historical highs, but without a clear direction.
In fact, we see compressed volatility:
• indices are rising without momentum
• risks from the Fed and tariffs remain key triggers
• reaction to NFP and the absence of a court decision confirms the 'wait & see' scenario
📌 Summary and market momentum
• Labor market data — neutral, the labor market is neither overheated nor weak
• The Supreme Court did not give a definitive signal regarding tariffs
• Markets continue to hold at highs, but the real movement has not yet formed.
As of 10.01.2026, the market demonstrates: momentum is forming through expectations, not through news. Volatility is not a threat but an opportunity for those who understand the game.
