Fidelity's global macro director said Bitcoin is moving away from its historically steep power law growth trajectory into an internet S-curve pattern, reigniting debate over whether the cryptocurrency's traditional 4-year halving cycle remains valid.
What's happening; change in growth model
Jurrien Timmer pointed out that Bitcoin has fallen behind other assets, including gold, in early 2025 after a period of consolidation, posting his analysis on the X platform.
This market expert explained that the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is increasingly moving away from the mathematical framework of the power law model—which assumes predictable, time-dependent growth—and instead following the internet S-curve.
These observations have fueled debate over whether the Bitcoin halving-driven cycle has come to an end.
Supporters of this view cite institutional adoption and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as evidence of a new bull market structure.
Timmer agreed that the influence of the halving is diminishing, but drew a line at claims that the bear market has ended.
He said, 'I am not skeptical about the idea that the power of the halving cycle is weakening (to which I agree), but I am skeptical about the notion that bear markets will no longer occur.'
Read more: Stablecoins Now Handle 84% Of Illegal Crypto Activity, Dwarfing Bitcoin
Why it matters; Key price levels
From a technical perspective, Timmer identified approximately $65,000—the previous cycle's peak level—as a key support level for Bitcoin. The next important level is around $45,000, where the current power law trendline is located.
Although this trendline is well below the current price, Timmer predicts that if Bitcoin enters a prolonged consolidation phase over the next year, it could rise as high as $65,000.
Exchange data supports the possibility of Bitcoin's long-term consolidation.
According to CryptoQuant data, the total amount flowing into exchanges dropped sharply from approximately 43,940 BTC on December 31 to around 3,970 BTC on January 5, decreasing by over 90%.
Santiment's on-chain data tracking Spent Coins Age Bands shows that on-chain activity declined by about 80%, from roughly 28,033 BTC to around 5,644 BTC during the same period. The reduced movement frequency of both new and long-term held coins suggests holders are choosing to hold rather than sell.
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