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Macro week ahead: red bars everywhere. No hiding from the data this week.
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Tuesday: UK jobs (claimants already climbing) + US CPI
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Headline YoY steady at 2.7%, core MoM 0.3%. One hot print and the “no-rate-cut” hawks screech louder. $DXY watches closely.
Wednesday: US retail sales. Control group is the real tell—soft number after monster payrolls? “Strong economy” story cracks. $SPX vulnerable.
Thursday: Aussie jobs + China data dump (IP, retail sales). Any weakness feeds the slowdown narrative.
Friday: China Q4 GDP + Eurozone final HICP (2.0% YoY expected). Last inflation read before ECB meeting. Sticky = no cuts.
Markets priced for perfection: global soft landing, cuts galore, risk-on eternal. One upside surprise or China miss and sentiment flips fast.
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Base case: CPI in line, China mildly disappointing, retail decent. Volatility spikes, no clear direction yet.
Biggest risk this week—sticky US inflation or China hard landing? Tell me yours.
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