Third week in a row I open the chart and… nothing fundamentally new.
#BTC As it was cutting, so it keeps cutting.
Last week they took liquidity from the 4H FVG, got an immediate reaction and then pulled back again.
Important point — the fractal repeats: taking liquidity from the swing high (high of the previous month) → reaction → pullback.
The main question now is simple:
will we go for liquidity from below this time, as we have before?
We analyze scenarios
🅰️ Scenario A — a pullback to gather liquidity
Clear magnets have formed from below:
PWL — the lows of last week
a small 4H FVG, which appeared at the beginning of the year
Withdrawal of one of these levels:
or will give impulse for recovery,
or will pull the price lower — for the next liquidity.
🅱️ Scenario B — a spike and a bounce
Very similar to scenario A, but with the classic BTC spike PWL and a quick reaction.
The trigger here could easily be:
macro,
or the court's decision on Trump's tariffs on Wednesday.
BTC loves this — to scare sharply, and then go in the opposite direction.
🅲 Scenario C — the beginning of recovery
So far, the least likely scenario, but it cannot be completely ignored.
Options:
or a slight spike of last week's lows,
or a reaction from current levels to long,
further:
we are removing the stops of shorters,
taking $95k,
moving towards the zone $98–100k.
🎯 Focus of the week
This week is macro-rich, and surprises are quite possible:
CPI (inflation) — the key to the Fed's decision on 28.01
Now the market gives ~96%, that the rate will not change → for risk this is not great.
The court's decision on Trump's tariffs
There are no analogs in the past, so the reaction can be anything — we are orienting ourselvesbased on the fact, not on fantasies.PCE / consumer inflation — Powell's favorite indicator.
Pressure on the Fed is increasing, the story resembles the Gensler case:
a lot of noise → a real reaction with a delay.
His head of the Fed under Trump will be — this is almost obvious. He is just busy with 'geography' for now.