📌 Core Signal
1. Bitcoin's short-term outlook
Current price: $92,294.94 (↑1.74%)
Market structure: Technical indicators at higher levels show intensified bull-bear competition. On one hand, large whale orders are active in the spot market, and long-term (90-day) buying pressure remains strong, providing support at market bottoms. On the other hand, multiple top-level warning signals have appeared:
1) Retail spot trading frequency has surged dramatically, a pattern historically associated with temporary market tops;
2) Both spot and futures market volumes are showing a 'cooling' trend, indicating exhaustion of upward momentum;
3) Net inflows at exchanges indicate increased potential selling pressure.
Liquidation overview: Due to limited price movement over the past 24 hours, no large-scale directional liquidations occurred in the market.
2. Trading window
Strong signals to reduce position: Surge in retail activity, shrinking volume, and exchanges turning net inflow — this combination reflects characteristics of a potential distribution zone, making chasing highs extremely risky.
Support band reference: Lack of technical indicator data such as moving averages. The current key support comes from buying pressure accumulated over the past 90 days, but if the price fails to break through and selling pressure materializes, this support will face severe testing.
Funding divergence: Funding rate remains positive, indicating dominant leveraged long sentiment; however, open interest is declining. This creates a bearish divergence between 'bullish sentiment' and 'capital exit', suggesting new funds are not supporting high leverage, making long positions extremely vulnerable.
3. Macro risks
Fed politicization crisis: Pressure from the Trump administration on the Fed has triggered global concerns about central bank independence. This event could both increase safe-haven demand (benefiting non-sovereign assets like BTC) and suppress risk assets if monetary policy uncertainty rises.
Global liquidity vs. inflation博弈: Yen depreciation strengthens the dollar, temporarily pressuring BTC prices. Tonight's 21:30 U.S. CPI data is expected to rise, potentially reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance and delaying rate cuts. However, safe-haven capital is flowing into the precious metals market, and its spillover effect may indirectly benefit BTC.
Geopolitical tensions escalating: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with potential trade friction, are fueling global safe-haven sentiment, which may increase BTC's appeal as a decentralized asset.
⚠ Must-watch events
[1.13 21:30] U.S. December CPI data → If core figures exceed expectations, it could trigger a broad selloff in risk assets.
[1.14 10:30] Guotou Silver LOF resumes trading → Whether the premium rate can soften will determine if safe-haven capital continues to ferment or shifts toward BTC and other markets.
[Ongoing monitoring] Fed personnel turmoil and geopolitical tensions → Trump's interviews for the Fed chair position and escalation in Iran-related situations will continue to bring market uncertainty.
🚀 Minimalist Strategy Pool
Aggressive traders: Based on funding divergence and retail topping signals, consider a very light short position as a test, with strict stop-loss to avoid being caught by large whale spot buying. The risk of chasing longs at current prices is extremely high.
Prudent traders: Step back and wait for clearer signals. The market is currently in a phase of intense conflict between long/short forces and macro signals. Wait for the CPI data release, then act after the market clarifies its direction.
For those with no position: Be patient and wait for the macro uncertainty to clear. Focus on tonight's CPI data and the capital flow after silver LOF resumes trading tomorrow. If CPI comes in below expectations and safe-haven funds remain active, reassess the opportunity to position BTC at that time.
