After breaking above the $3300 level, Ethereum price is now testing a technical zone that could determine whether the market is heading towards $4000 or preparing for a new downturn.
At the same time, key indicators signal renewed hope for 2026, supporting the possibility of a move towards $4000.
Ethereum is testing the key $3,450 resistance level while $4,000 becomes a realistic target
Ethereum price has already broken through a key barrier after rising above $3300, but now faces a crucial test and must reclaim the $3450 level. According to analyst Ted Pillows, the path to $4000 could open quickly if this happens.
“ETH has broken above the $3,300 level. Ethereum must reclaim the $3,450 level, and a swift rise toward the $4,000 level could follow,” wrote Pillows.
However, the rally is not guaranteed, as a reversal at the $3,450 resistance could hinder the potential upward movement.
What makes this situation different from previous attempts is what's happening beneath the surface. While price movements appear stable, Ethereum's on-chain activity is accelerating at a pace rarely seen before.
Data shared by BMNR Bulls shows that Ethereum recorded 393,600 new wallets in a single day, marking a new record.
The past week has seen the daily average of new wallets around 327,000, pushing the number of non-empty ETH wallets to a record level. According to BMNR Bulls, this growth is not driven by speculation on price increases.
“This is not price-driven speculation,” the post states. “It is driven by lower fees after Fusaka, record-high activity for stablecoin payments, and real users adopting apps, payments, and DeFi.”
This increase in adoption is clearly visible in transaction data. Network researcher Joseph Young noted that the weekly number of users transacting on Ethereum has reached a new record, with 889,300 users actively using the network each week.
He attributed the growth to Ethereum's dominance in stablecoins, DeFi, and trading platforms like Uniswap.
“...after Fusaka, Ethereum scales VERY efficiently,” he added.
Analyst Leon Waidmann also confirmed the trend, noting that transaction volumes within the Ethereum ecosystem continue to rise.
Julia's technical analysts, including Kyle Doops, highlight the growing divergence between price and fundamental conditions.
“The price has been calm. The network hasn't,” he said, pointing to records in wallet creation, increasing transactions, and ETH staking at an all-time high. According to Doops, this is “worth following in January.”
Major players are also making moves. On-chain data tracked by Onchain Lens shows that the whale wallet “pension-usdt.eth” recently closed a leveraged ETH long position. With this, they secured a profit of $4.72 million from the trade.
So far, this wallet has generated approximately $27 million in ETH gains, demonstrating how much capital is actively positioned around the recent Ethereum rally.
At the same time, institutions are becoming increasingly optimistic. Standard Chartered, cited by Walter Bloomberg, stated that Ethereum's outlook has improved and that assets are likely to outperform Bitcoin.
Bank executives point to Ethereum's leadership in stablecoins, real-world assets, and DeFi, along with increasing network capacity and potential regulatory clarity in the U.S. According to Standard Chartered, Ethereum is projected to reach $7,500 this year and $30,000 by 2029.
With increasing adoption, activity, and institutional interest, Ethereum's test of the $3,450 level could be decisive for short-term price development, as well as whether $4,000 could become a reality in the near term.