Now basically everyone knows:
Cryptocurrency = macro asset = liquidity-driven.
But let's be honest:
90% of people just use "macro" as a shield.
Up:
"See, monetary easing, it must go up."
Down:
"Can't help it, the macro environment is bad."
But ask yourself:
Which macro variables actually price crypto?
Why does it surge in some phases and bleed in others?
Most people can't actually explain it.
First, let's pour some cold water:
Early-stage cryptocurrency hardly cared about macro.
Who was the main player back then?
Black market / gray economy
Crypto punk veterans!!!!!!!
The group of people who are really "anti-system,"
What they care about is not CPI, interest rates, or the dot plot.
They only care about three things:
Can it be used?
Can it be transferred?
Can it bypass restrictions?
So when you look back at the early cycle,
BTC is related to US Treasuries, interest rates, and the US dollar index—
The correlation is extremely low.
There is only one real change:
The pricing power has changed hands.
When regulation opens up, ETFs enter, and institutions get involved,
Cryptocurrency is no longer a 'marginal asset',
But rather stuffed into a framework that is too familiar:
Risk assets
Liquid assets
Part of asset allocation
From that moment on,
It must be responsible for the macro.
What you see now:
"BTC looks at liquidity"
"BTC is sensitive to real interest rates"
Here, I personally suggest everyone take a good look, understand it!!!!!!!
In essence, it's just one sentence:
What decides the price now is not belief, but marginal funds.
So in the current cycle, what should we focus on?
Personally, I only focus on two main lines.
The first point: US dollar liquidity.
Now the market is no longer debating "Will there be a rate cut,"
But is calculating:
How fast to cut
How deep to cut
Can it hold the system
History has repeatedly proven one thing:
When money increases, but money itself becomes less valuable, capital will certainly flee.
It's not about fleeing the market,
But fleeing to assets that "cannot be printed at will."
Bitcoin is just one of the options.
In plain terms:
People didn't suddenly believe in BTC, but are increasingly losing faith in fiat currency.
The second point: redefining safe assets.
These old safe-haven assets like gold,
In recent years, it's been repeatedly following a path:
Hedging sovereign credit risk.
And BTC is being redefined by a portion of long-term funds.
It's not 'digital gold,'
Nor is it 'assets that must rise,'
But rather—
A configuration option outside the sovereign system.
It does not replace gold,
But when system pressure rises,
It will be recalled.
Then why am I vigilant about 2026?
It's not about bearishness,
But there are really a lot of variables:
US midterm elections, political uncertainty heightened
AI / tech sector valuations are high, once sentiment reverses, it can be severe
Once Japan takes action on policy, the yen arbitrage will tighten immediately, global liquidity will be tight
Geopolitical conflicts have always existed
The long end yield of US Treasuries, doesn't look like a 'safe asset' at all
Global growth is slowing, corporate profits are starting to tighten
Each one can withstand,
When combined, it can easily lead to problems.
Let me say something many people don't like to hear.
"Has the four-year cycle ended?"
I don't think so.
I admit it:
Not as violent as before
Not as clear as before
It has been smoothed out by institutions to some extent
But if you say it has disappeared?
I don't believe it.
Human nature hasn't changed,
Liquidity hasn't changed,
Position structure hasn't changed either.
The pace has slowed,
But the rhythm is still there.
So the conclusion is very simple:
If BTC experiences a significant drop in Q3~Q4 of 2026,
I wouldn't be surprised at all.
During such times, I only do one thing:
Buy slowly.
It's not about going all in,
It's not about shouting orders,
It's about calmly and mechanically adding.
Because history repeatedly tells me:
The most comfortable long-term chips,
Are often bought at the most uncomfortable times.
The cycle is not a failure,
It's just turned around again.