The battle has begun! Is oil and gold about to take off?
Oil Price: Right now, it's a 'shock', but be cautious of future 'impact'?
Venezuela has the largest crude oil reserves in the world! Once the conflict breaks out, worries about supply disruptions immediately drive up oil prices—this is short-term logic.
BUT! In the long term, if the situation truly changes and sanctions are lifted, its repressed capacity of 300 billion barrels of crude oil may gradually be released, which could actually put tremendous pressure on global oil prices. Therefore, oil prices might be rising now due to 'news stimulation', but in the future, we must be wary of 'oversupply leading to a drop'.
Gold and Silver: The safe-haven halo continues to shine!
In times of chaos, buy gold—it's an old adage. When geopolitical conflicts erupt, the 'sense of security' attribute of gold $XAU is fully highlighted. Last year, gold prices already achieved the best performance in over 40 years, and now there's even more support. Plus, the dollar suffered a bit last year, giving gold $XAU an even bigger 'stage'. Don't fear short-term adjustments; it could be an opportunity.
Short-term: Geopolitical conflicts (Venezuela) (Iran) provide an 'emotional premium' for gold and oil prices, leading to increased volatility.
Medium-term: The oil market must be cautious of the supply return pressure after the 'conflict dividend'; for gold, we need to watch these two lines: geopolitics and interest rate cut expectations.
