Liquidity pressure has decreased: XPL has dropped by 6.94%, currently trading near $0.1411 due to a strong liquidity outflow exceeding $940,000 in the last trading day, while momentum indicators show significant weakness, indicating an existing opportunity for short-term speculators to take advantage of momentary correction waves, especially with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana relatively stable.
News side (📉 Negative):
Lack of institutional incentives: There are no new positive news supporting XPL, while investor interest is focused on projects like BTC, ETH, and SOL associated with massive institutional adoption in the tokenized assets (RWA) sector.
Liquidity flow shift: Data shows a continuous outflow of funds over five consecutive days, confirming a shift by investors towards more stable primary assets like BTC and ETH.
Technical side (📉 Negative):
Momentum weakness indicators: K and D in the KDJ indicator on daily time frames have fallen to oversold areas (K=10, D=16), reflecting increasing selling pressure.
Decline of moving averages: Long averages (MA50 and MA100) are continuously declining, indicating a medium-term bearish trend.
Seller dominance: The buy-to-sell ratio among professional accounts reached about 8.0, but actual market activity leans in favor of sellers, evidenced by total sales volume exceeding buy transactions in most recent hours.
🚨 Risks (🔴 High)
Impact of mass capital flight: Internal liquidity continues to decrease with a net outflow rate exceeding $900,000, while the fear and greed index shows a neutral level at 50, increasing the risk of a sharp decline if large buyers do not intervene soon.
Overall assessment:
1. Long position accumulation: The percentage of long positions has increased to over 88% in perpetual contracts, increasing the likelihood of forced liquidation on any further decline.
2. Lack of institutional support: There are no partnerships or major updates that instill confidence as is the case with BTC, ETH, and SOL.
3. Weak overall market momentum: Indicators like AHR999 at 0.618 indicate an undervalued market but without effective buying momentum.
⚡ Action (📉 Bearish)
Short-term tactical sell: It is advised to sell on the rebound towards 0.1450 to limit losses, with a stop-loss at 0.1500 and targeting partial profit at 0.1350. In the medium term, partial buy positions can be rebuilt only if the price stabilizes above 0.1550 and momentum indicators confirm. It is preferable to distribute the remaining liquidity in BTC, ETH, and SOL to reduce overall portfolio risk.
Short-term plan: Sell 📉
Entry point: 0.1450 (30% of capital)
Stop loss: 0.1500
Profit-taking: 0.1350
Medium to long-term plan: Gradual buying 📈 after momentum stabilizes
Entry point: 0.1550
Stop loss: 0.1400
Profit-taking: 0.1750
