Just a few days ago, the four most powerful investors in Silicon Valley casually discussed the 2026 midterm elections and GDP in their annual predictions. However, if you can understand the 'coded language' in these 90 minutes, you will realize they are conducting a capital withdrawal of up to $500 billion. This $500 billion is retreating from familiar fields and flowing into a completely new area that most ordinary people cannot comprehend. Many are still arguing online about trending topics, but the real 'smart money' has quietly switched tracks.
I have dissected the conversations of these four billionaires and derived three foundational logics for survival in this era. Whether you are a worker, entrepreneur, or investor, understanding these may determine your development in the next three years.
The first is a disruptive cognitive judgment: the era of making money effortlessly through software may be coming to an end. Over the past decade, the myth of getting rich by writing an app, creating a SaaS platform, or a simple web tool with a valuation of hundreds of millions has been commonplace. However, Chamath predicts that by 2026, enterprise-level software (Enterprise SaaS) will face an epic collapse. This is because software companies now profit not just from selling code but from the complexity of the software, such as requiring paid services for difficult-to-use software or spending money on system migration due to incompatibility. However, when AI can automatically write code, maintain systems, and even move data, these 'moats' of software companies will be filled in an instant.
So, where is the 'smart money' flowing? Chamath and Jason provide the same answer: hard assets. They are frantically buying copper, energy, computing power, infrastructure, and robotics. Jason even predicts that Amazon will soon reach a corporate singularity, where robots will contribute more to profits than human employees. The logic behind this is that the marginal cost of the virtual world will approach zero over the next decade, while physical world resources will become extremely expensive. Therefore, if you are still focused on writing beautiful code or managing complex systems, it is akin to carving a boat on a sinking ship, as future opportunities lie in using AI to control the physical world.
The second is about the economy and employment. Sacks predicts that the U.S. GDP could soar to 5% or even 6% by 2026, which is hard for many facing unemployment and business difficulties to accept. However, there is actually a misunderstanding, namely the 'K-shaped divergence.' In the past, economic prosperity meant everyone saw wage increases and companies expanded hiring, but this time's prosperity (the Trump boom or new cycle) is essentially a pursuit of efficiency. A productivity surge of 4.9% means companies are not hiring more people, and even laying off employees, while output is skyrocketing, thanks to AI and automation technology. This is a feast for asset holders because profit margins have increased; but for the white-collar class that merely sells their time, it is a disaster, as companies find that deploying AI systems is more cost-effective than training college graduates.
The third is about the business landscape. In the past, it was often said that 'small and beautiful' could 'disrupt the giants,' but in the predictions for 2026, the wealthy believe that a big era of mergers and acquisitions is coming. With regulatory changes, giants will be unrestrained and will use huge cash reserves to swallow up small companies with technology and data, which means the middle layer will disappear. The future market may only have two types of companies: one type is super giants like Tesla and Amazon that control core resources, and the other type is super individuals or micro studios that depend on the giants, such as SpaceX possibly being absorbed back into Tesla. This indicates that future competition will be competition for ecological niches; if entrepreneurship is only about creating small functions and selling them at high prices, the window of opportunity is closing. One must either become a crucial part of the giant's ecosystem or be crushed by the giant's AI replication.
As ordinary people, what should we do? First, stop the 'brick-moving mentality' and establish an asset mentality. Do not measure value by work hours; in the AI era, value depends on the resources one can call upon. Learn to use AI tools, making yourself equivalent to a team. Utilize inexpensive AI to tackle non-standardized dirty and tiring work that large companies overlook, seizing the opportunities brought by the 'Jevons Paradox' to address long-tail demands that were previously neglected due to high costs. Second, focus on the benefits of the physical world. Don't just fixate on screen traffic; look at industries like energy, new materials, smart manufacturing, and elder care. When investing, it is safer to allocate to hard assets linked to tangible goods than to buy virtual concepts. Third, learn geographical arbitrage and environmental selection. The wealthy are fleeing high-tax, low-efficiency California for Texas and Florida, which suggests we should seek incremental markets and avoid environments that only know internal competition and office politics, opting instead for places that promote fairness and encourage innovation.
Finally, the era will not wait for those who refuse to evolve. 2026 is just around the corner; whether to complain in the old world or jump on the new era train and become someone who harnesses AI, connects the physical world, and understands trends is worth our contemplation.
