Onyxcoin has had one of the most uneven price developments in the market recently. Over the past three months, the XCN price has dropped by about 22%, but it has still increased by approximately 45% in the last month. Most of the increase occurred in a rapid surge between December 30 and January 6, when the price rose quickly before the momentum slowed.
After a peak near $0.013, Onyxcoin has dropped nearly 48%. At first glance, it resembles a typical boom-and-bust movement where many take profits. But beneath the surface, something more important is happening. A large portion of the speculative asset has already left, selling pressure is decreasing, and momentum is beginning to stabilize at strong historical support.
A well-known structure is forming as the price tests strong cost-base support.
Momentum is now beginning to diverge from the price. On the daily chart, Onyxcoin shows signs of an upcoming positive divergence on the Relative Strength Index. The RSI measures the balance between recent gains and losses and often turns upwards before the price when selling pressure from sellers decreases.
This pattern has been important for XCN before. Between October 10 and December 30, the price made a lower bottom while the RSI made a higher bottom. That divergence indicated that sellers began to tire and led to a rise of more than 200% in less than a week.
A similar pattern is now developing between October 10 and January 20. The price continues to decline, but the RSI remains stronger than during the previous downturn. The signal is not yet confirmed. To get confirmation of the divergence, the next daily candle needs to close above approximately 0.0067 USD. If that happens, the divergence becomes active instead of possible. If not, a deeper correction, as long as the RSI does not fall below the October 10 level, can still keep the positive divergence intact.
Even though the XCN price is dropping further, the downside is now becoming more apparent. Cost data shows a tight accumulation zone between 0.0060 and 0.0061 USD where approximately 4.9 billion XCN were purchased. This cluster shows a level where many holders are about to break even, making it natural for the selling pressure to decrease and for buyers to step in.
Momentum is increasing just as the price approaches one of the heaviest support levels in history.
Speculative holders are selling a lot - therefore it can be positive.
The most significant change is now occurring among the owners.
Over the past month, speculative Onyxcoin holders have sold quickly. Wallets that held XCN for between one day and one month saw their share of the supply decrease significantly, according to HODL Waves measurement. This measurement divides wallets based on how long the holding has been ongoing.
The group between one week and one month fell from 27.56% of the supply to just 3.65%, while the group from one day to one week fell from 4.69% to approximately 0.80%.
Together, the speculative groups had over 32% of the total supply earlier during the correction. Now they have less than 5%.
So it is about a reduction in speculative supply of 85%.
Such exits usually happen late in a correction, not at the beginning. These holders often seek momentum and sell quickly during downturns to lock in as much profit as they can. When they leave, the forced selling pressure tends to disappear quickly.
At the same time, long-term holders are going in the opposite direction. Wallets with XCN for 6 to 12 months increased their share of the supply from 6.81% to 8.03% between December 20 and January 19.
Even the oldest groups, 2-3 years, showed slight increases. These holders often buy when the price is weak and sell much more slowly.
This rotation is important. Supply is now shifting from reactive traders to people who want to hold long-term. This does not guarantee a quick rise, but it reduces the risk of a new sharp decline.
In short, the decline may have already done its part.
XCN price levels that determine if the correction is about to end
With speculative supply gone and momentum stable, price levels now determine what happens next.
The first level to follow is 0.0067 USD. If the price stays above this level, the RSI divergence is confirmed and shows that buyers are defending higher lows. If the price drops below, 0.0060 USD becomes important. This level is at the lower part of the cost cluster and thus marks where downside risk decreases.
On the upside, the first important test is near 0.0075 USD. If the price breaks above that level, it has recovered about 10% and shows that buyers are coming back. A clear positive change occurs only if XCN reclaims 0.0096 USD, the level lost in early January, which has stopped every recovery since then.
Until that happens, rises are still just temporary corrections and do not change the trend.