Due to the chaotic Trump, there is a 30% chance that the price of Bitcoin could drop below $80,000.
Today, January 20, 2026, the morning might be quite calm for crypto enthusiasts. At the beginning of the new year, Bitcoin (BTC) surged to $95,000, and "this time we hope to reach $100,000," my brother and I were also hoping. However, now the price has fallen back below $91,000, and concerning news has started to emerge again.
Actually, investing is like riding a wave. It's a big wave, and you need to be cautious. Right now, according to market data based on technology like Derive.xyz, there is about a 30% chance that Bitcoin prices will drop below $80,000 by the end of June. Is that a big scare? Or is it a time to pause and wait? Let's explore that together.
1. What's happening in the market? đ
Here, you need to understand the term "Options." Simply put, Options are "advance guarantees for the future" or "a form of gambling."
Call Option: Buying in advance with the expectation that prices will rise.
Put Option: A contract to sell in advance to mitigate losses or to make a profit when prices drop.
Now, there are a lot of "Put Options" being collected in places like Derive.xyz and Deribit. Especially between $75,000 and $80,000, there are many buyers. This indicates that the whales in the market are preparing for Bitcoin prices to potentially fall back to around $70,000. Comparatively, on June 26, when BTC had a 19% chance of exceeding $120,000, it had a 30% chance of dropping below $80,000.
2. Why are we so worried about this? (The Greenland Factor) đŹđąđşđ¸
My brother, it's going to take a while. Crypto cannot be separated from global politics. Right now, the plan to acquire "Greenland" (Greenland) by President Donald Trump of the United States has started the controversy. Countries like the UK and other European nations are opposing this, and Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from Europe.
Why is this affecting Bitcoin?
In April 2025, the same thing happened, and because of Trump's tax increases, BTC fell to $75,000 at one point. Now, the ongoing "Geopolitical Tension" is causing unrest in the market. It's natural for investors to withdraw their money from high-risk crypto investments when they become fearful.
3. How should we face this situation? đĄ
Since it's happening, how should we deal with this situation? The market is currently transitioning to a "High Volatility" state.
So, don't panic. Avoid selling just because of a slight drop in prices due to panic selling. Options data is merely speculation and is not always accurate.
Another point is that Cash is King. Keep some stablecoins (USDT/USDC) ready in your portfolio. If the price actually drops to around $75,000 - $80,000, this could be a good opportunity to buy at a "Discount Price" for the long term.
And don't let the news distract you. Right now, political news is driving the market more than technology news. We need to watch how the trade war between the United States and Europe unfolds. Trump can be unpredictable.
4. What could happen next? (The Future Outlook) đđ
Bitcoin has a 30% chance of falling below $80,000 from $91,000, which serves as a warning bell. However, the hope of rising to $120,000 has not disappeared yet.
The current situation is a "Wait and See" time. Due to the market's downward trend, it's advisable to avoid using a lot of leverage to go long (betting that prices will rise) at this time.
Bitcoin is only for those with a strong spirit. Even if it drops below $80,000, it doesnât mean the end of Bitcoin. Itâs just a phase in the market. Diversify your investments and follow the data instead of being led by emotions.
In my brother's crypto journey, these ups and downs will serve as valuable lessons. I want to encourage you to invest carefully. Good luck to you all đ¤đŞ
