🚨 SYSTEMIC #STRESS ⚠️ALERT: THIS ISN’T STIMULUS — IT’S A FUNDING WARNING
THE QUICK TAKE🔥
LIQUIDITY ≠ BULLISH: The Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet as funding tightened, not to boost markets.
BAD COLLATERAL SIGNAL: MBS absorption > Treasuries suggests weaker collateral hitting the window.
DEBT SPIRAL RISK: U.S. debt > $34T, interest costs surging; Treasuries becoming a confidence asset, not risk-free.
BUYER OF LAST RESORT: Foreign demand softens; domestic buyers price-sensitive → Fed backstops quietly.
GLOBAL ECHO: People’s Bank of China injects > ¥1T via reverse repos in a week — same plumbing stress.
ORDER OF FAILURE: Bonds → funding markets → equities → crypto (most volatile).
REAL SIGNAL: Gold & silver at highs = rejection of sovereign debt, not growth optimism.
BOTTOM LINE This phase is about keeping funding alive, not lifting prices. When liquidity injections arrive under stress, risk assets eventually reprice.
SRC: Federal Reserve releases | Reuters | Bloomberg | BIS | PBoC statements