Day 20/01 - 19/30
WHY DON'T I ENTER LAUNCHES
This is not a post against launches.
It's a post about profile, risk, and timing.
🚀 What are 'launches' in practice in the crypto market and what do launches generally involve:
• newly created tokens
• projects still without history
• little time in the market
• strong narrative and high expectations
The problem is not the launch itself.
It's entering without understanding the real risk involved.
⚠️ The main risk of launches
In launches, almost everything is still uncertain:
• the product has not been tested at scale
• adoption still does not exist
• the behavior of the token is unknown
• the tokenomics is still in a critical phase (unlock, issuance, incentives)
📌 In this scenario, it is common for the price:
• rise very quickly
• to fall at the same speed
• becomes extremely volatile
📉 Asymmetry that few people notice
At launch:
• those who entered earlier generally have a very low cost
• who enters later takes on more risk
• information is never distributed equally
Even without bad intention, the market is not symmetrical at this moment.
⏳ Time as an ally
When a project endures over time, it:
• shows if it delivers
• reveals how one deals with crises
• exposes flaws and qualities
• allows analyzing tokenomics in motion
Many times, not entering now is the best decision.
🔹 WEEK 3 — ANALYSIS & DECISION (16 to 22/01)
✅ 16/01 – Buy for fundamentals vs buy for hype
✅ 17/01 – What to analyze before buying a coin
✅ 18/01 – Tokenomics: inflation, issuance, and unlocks
✅ 19/01 – Cheap price DOES NOT mean opportunity
✅ 20/01 – Why I don’t invest in launches
⬜ 21/01 – The importance of reviewing decisions (even wrong ones)
⬜ 22/01 – Conviction is not stubbornness
🔍 CONCLUSION
Launches are not a problem, entering without criteria is.
For me:
• predictability matters
• history matters
• understanding how the asset reacts to the market matters
• I prefer to try to make fewer mistakes
• earn less per trade
• but earn with more consistency
📌 This is a profile, not a rule.
❗ This is not an investment recommendation.
I share experience, study, and reflection.
