The Bitcoin price has continued to fall back. BTC has dropped by about 3% in the last 24 hours and around 6.6% over the past seven days. The price has gone below 90,000 USD, making the target of 100,000 USD feel further away.
But this drop is not something new. Similar declines have happened before, and Bitcoin recovered when key technical signals aligned. Now many are waiting for the momentum to end and for the price to return above key moving averages.
Hidden divergence and EMA retracement show the recovery setup.
The idea of a reversal begins with momentum.
On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin shows a hidden positive divergence. Between mid-December and the end of January, the BTC price made a higher low while the RSI made a lower low. The RSI measures momentum by comparing new gains and losses. When the RSI weakens but the price remains stable, it often means that selling pressure has decreased.
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This momentum change is important because it prepares for the next technical signal: the exponential moving averages.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has recently lost both the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. An EMA gives more weight to new prices and makes it easier to detect trends.
Since June 2025, Bitcoin has followed clear patterns. Every time the price has recovered and held the 20-day and 50-day EMA after a downturn, the price rose quickly.
At the end of June, the price increased by 16.9%.
At the end of September, it was 11.7%.
At the beginning of January, it was 10%.
If the RSI stabilizes and the price climbs above the 20-day and 50-day EMA, the price may continue to rise within the same historical range. This makes a move towards 100,000 USD still possible. But does on-chain data support this theory?
Whales remain still while long-term holders hold back the price.
On-chain data explains why the recovery has not started yet.
Whales' behavior is still positive. The number of addresses with between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has not decreased since January 14. Despite the price drop, the number of whales has remained stable or even increased slightly, indicating that large players are not behind the selling. The faith in Bitcoin remains.
Hodlers are also receiving more supply. Wallets that have owned Bitcoin for more than 155 days have continued to accumulate more coins. Despite the downturn between January 14 and 20, this group increased their purchases by 62%.
The pressure comes from those who have held their Bitcoins for a very long time.
Wallets that have held Bitcoin for over a year have increased their selling during the downturn. On January 14, their net outflows were around 25,700 BTC. By January 20, it had risen to about 68,650 BTC. This increase of 167% is the main reason the price cannot lift right now.
In summary, whales and holders support the price, while very long-term holders sell BTC.
The Bitcoin price levels that determine whether 100,000 USD is still possible
Now this conflict is resolved through price movements.
On the upside, Bitcoin needs to reclaim 94,390 USD and 96,420 USD. A daily closing price above those levels indicates a successful EMA recovery and confirms the reversal. If that happens, a move towards 100,000 USD (the 100,240 line) could mean an increase of about 12% from today's level, fitting within the historical EMA range discussed earlier.
On the downside, 87,830 USD is important. If the price drops below this level for an extended period, the RSI divergence weakens and the support at 84,350 USD risks being tested. This contradicts the theory of a reversal and shows that long-term holders are still selling a lot.
Bitcoin does not need a miracle. It needs confirmation of momentum and the EMA to be regained. Bitcoin may also need support from very long-term holders. If they continue to sell, it may therefore take longer for Bitcoin to recover the EMA level.
If all this happens, the same price movement pattern that has worked many times since mid-2025 could still point the way to 100,000 USD.