But very few are preparing for what actually matters.
You must be ready for two critical phases.
📅 Historical Market Structure (2026 Outlook)
End of January – February 2026
• Slow, steady recovery
• Relief rallies, false confidence
Altseason begins: March
📊 Market Peak: April – May
📊 Cycle Exhaustion: By September
If this does not happen, then the entire structure changes.
🧠 Welcome to the Delusional Bull
People are still believing in a “supercycle”
—but there is no concrete fundamental fully confirming it yet.
The maximum delusion Bitcoin can offer in Q1 is $110K
before the real bear market begins in Q2.
Bitcoin hit $98K and suddenly everyone shouted:
“We are back!”
Now many are calling $200K by February on X.
Reality check 👇
The only possible extension is $100K–$110K, if the market allows one last revisit
before the official bear phase begins.
🏦 Monetary Reality (The Part Influencers Ignore)
• Quantitative Easing (QE) is NOT coming in 2026
• Even with a new Fed Chair (June) — QE won’t return
• The economy is doing fine (except crypto)
Yes, rate cuts will come
📈 U.S. stocks may perform extremely well
❌ But that doesn’t guarantee crypto strength
Ending QT ≠ QE
Fed buying Treasury bills ≠ QE
QE means buying Bonds & MBS at scale
That is not happening — even if Trump appoints the next Fed Chair.
🐻 Phase 2 Bear Market Is Coming
We are heading into Phase 2 of the bear market
Most crypto influencers won’t realize it
until it hits in real time.
I want the bull market to continue.
I am all in.
But the truth must be told:
❌ No confirmed supercycle fundamentals
❌ Fed balance sheet expansion is NOT QE
❌ The 4-year cycle still stands
Bear market window:
📉 Q2 – Q3
⏳ What Comes After?
🔹 Next Bitcoin halving is 816 days away
🔹 Block reward drops to 1.56 BTC
Timeline 👇
• 2027 Q1: Relief pump
• 2027 Q4 – 2028 Q1: Strong bull market
• 2028 Q4 – 2029 Q1: Another major bull cycle
🔚 Final Thought (Important)
Yes — a higher bull market in 2026 is still possible.
There are many reasons people believe this:
• 2026 historically follows the 2021 pattern
• CZ called 2026 a super cycle and awesome
• Elon Musk said 2026 will be a banger
• Multiple researchers and analysts have identified bullish signals for 2026
I am not denying this possibility.
But markets don’t reward belief — they reward preparation.
If we prepare for both scenarios
✔ bull continuation
✔ phase-2 bear
then there will be no regret later, no matter what happens.
Risk management > narratives.
I’ll explain how to manage these two phases in my next post.
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