Weak market characteristics of crypto (early 2026), balancing risk control and potential opportunities:
1. Core premises and market judgment
1. Main reasons for gold's rise: Central banks continue to buy gold, geopolitical risks, and expectations of interest rate cuts suppressing real interest rates, short-term bias is strong but there is a risk of profit-taking and technical overbought conditions
2. Main reasons for the crypto crash: Regulatory uncertainty, high leverage liquidation, and institutional capital outflows, liquidity and emotional shocks of risk assets, long-term value depends on compliance and practical application
3. Key principles: Control risk first, then look for opportunities; allocate to gold, make crypto investments in batches, and never use leverage
II. Immediate risk control actions (0-7 days)
1. Reduce leverage + clear poor quality crypto positions: Close crypto contracts/leverage, sell small coins without fundamentals or liquidity, exchange for stablecoins (USDT/USDC) or cash; retain a small amount (5% of total assets) of core coins (BTC/ETH) for observation $BTC
2. Gold position calibration: Control the gold (physical/ETF) allocation ratio to 10%-15% of total assets; if over-allocated, reduce positions in batches (reduce once every 5%-8% increase), lock in some profits; avoid chasing high prices for paper gold or leveraged gold products
3. Reserve cash/stablecoins: Ensure that over 30% of total assets are in cash or stablecoins to respond to further declines in crypto and opportunities for accumulating during gold pullbacks
4. Set stop-loss and observation levels:
◦ Crypto: Set key support stop-loss for BTC/ETH (e.g., drop below previous low by 10%), avoid a single loss exceeding 20%
◦ Gold: Set pullback accumulation levels (e.g., retracement of 5%-10%) and breakdown stop-loss levels (e.g., drop below important moving averages or previous lows)
III. Mid-term batch layout strategy (1-3 months)
Gold side
1. Pullback accumulation: For every 5%-10% pullback in gold, use 10%-20% of reserved cash to accumulate physical gold or compliant gold ETFs (prefer products with physical backing and good liquidity)
2. Long-term holding: Gold serves as a tool for inflation resistance and geopolitical risk, not frequently traded, holding periods measured in years
Crypto side (offensive bias, strictly in batches)
1. Core coins accumulate in batches (pyramid accumulation method):
Condition: BTC/ETH price stabilizes (e.g., fluctuating above key support for 7 consecutive days), increase in stablecoin inflows, positive signals from regulation (e.g., ETF approval, compliance framework implementation)
◦ Operations: For every 10% drop, use 10%-15% of stablecoins to accumulate BTC/ETH, with total position not exceeding 10% of total assets, absolutely never fully invest at once
2. Focus on quality projects: Prioritize projects with actual application scenarios (e.g., DeFi, NFT, Layer 2), compliance progress (e.g., obtaining regulatory licenses), and institutional holdings, avoid blindly bottom-fishing small coins
3. On-chain data assistance: Use tools like Glassnode to observe BTC/ETH whale holdings, miner sell-offs, stablecoin flows, etc., to assess market bottom signals
Long-term tracking and adjustment
1. Monthly review: Check the ratio of gold to crypto positions, return situation, and adjust strategies based on market changes (e.g., regulatory policies, macroeconomic data, industry progress)
2. Pay attention to key signals:
Gold: Central bank gold purchase data, changes in real interest rates, geopolitical risks
Crypto: Progress on regulatory compliance, inflow and outflow of institutional funds, status of core project applications
Dynamic balance: When the ratio of gold or crypto positions exceeds the target range, make batch adjustments to maintain asset allocation balance