#山寨季还会来吗

Many people are still looking forward to the altcoin season, but it’s very likely it will never return.

This statement may make many brothers feel uncomfortable,

it may also shatter the fantasies of many.

Since 2022, those brothers who believed in a four-year cycle, those who invested in altcoins for the long term, firmly believed in the four-year cycle of altcoins, what they have waited for is indeed a delayed altcoin festival!

In previous four-year bull markets of $BTC, there would always be a general rise in altcoin seasons! But how has it failed in the last two years?

When will the altcoin season come? I want to tell you a heartbreaking fact: it doesn't exist, there’s simply no buildup for altcoins; they fundamentally will not come, and this is an issue with the structure of the crypto market.

Let’s take the time back to 2021. The veteran traders believed the order of speculation in the crypto market is BTC > ETH > mainstream coins > popular altcoins > junk altcoins. This is the fixed mindset of veteran traders and also a path dependency. This approach has completely failed over the last two years.

The capital that the altcoin season depends on is overflowing emotion, and this round of performance only has BTC as the main actor, with no other supporting roles. The strong become stronger, the weak become weaker; the siphoning effect is too obvious. Do you still believe there will be an explosion of altcoins?

In the last two years, there haven’t been many newcomers entering the market, so there hasn’t been any new off-market capital coming in, it’s basically all money from within the market. Since Trump took office, MEME has siphoned off a large amount of liquidity.

The inducement for the altcoin season is the lack of liquidity, which makes it difficult to generate an "altcoin season." It’s like this: after the ETF approval, a large amount of off-market funds only buy ETFs and will not flow into altcoins.

The lack of liquidity in the market makes it difficult to generate an "altcoin season," leading to the phenomenon of polarization between Bitcoin and altcoins, compounded by excessive external uncertainties and various FUD voices. Everyone puts their funds in BTC, which is indeed safe.

99% of altcoins will go to zero; it’s just a matter of time. Many altcoins are lower than they were in 2023, indicating a loss of confidence in altcoins and a market choice. Give up the fantasy, give up the resistance, and still *guard the altcoins? You can only say you are not far from the position.