The price of Bitcoin has hardly moved in the last 24 hours. BTC is still trading flat around $89,500. Weekly losses remain at about 6%. On the surface, it appears to be a calm bottoming process. However, the charts are showing different signals.
Various technical signals and on-chain data currently indicate a confrontational stance. Buyers are not leading a new upward trend but are trying to slow down a larger decline. Risks are quietly accumulating, and new variables that are not well known are also emerging.
Doji candles·Moving average line deviation… BTC buying power under defense
In the last three days, Bitcoin recorded cross (doji) candles. The candle body is thin with long wicks. This shows hesitation rather than balance. Sellers are trying to lower the price, while buyers are entering late. Neither side is able to take the lead.
This movement is occurring just above the lower boundary of a rising wedge pattern. A wedge pattern is one where prices narrow and rise, but often turn bearish when support breaks.
If this structure collapses, the downward target is set at $77,300. There is about a 13% potential decline from the current price.
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Adding moving averages further intensifies technical risks. Bitcoin fell below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on January 20. The EMA is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices and reacts sensitively to short-term fluctuations.
On December 12, when Bitcoin clearly fell below the 20-day EMA for the first time, the price adjusted by about 8%. This time, after entering a downtrend, it has fallen about 5% and is now in a sideways movement. The doji candles suggest that buyers are slowing down the decline but failing to reverse it.
In summary, this is not just a simple conflict between bulls and bears. Buyers are struggling to delay a larger decline.
Then who is continuing to buy, and why is this support weakening?
Long-term holders continue to buy… slowdown in pace
According to on-chain data, long-term holding wallets that have held Bitcoin for over 155 days are still net buyers. This group is tracked by an indicator called 'holder net position change,' which measures how much long-term investors add or remove coins over a period.
Over the past two weeks, this indicator has consistently recorded positive values (+). This buying explains why the Bitcoin price has not yet turned bearish.
However, this strength is also gradually weakening.
On January 19, long-term holders added about 22,618 BTC. By January 23, the daily net buying volume decreased to 17,109 BTC. In just 4 days, buying pressure has decreased by about 24%.
In other words, holders are still defending the price, but their strength has weakened compared to before. This is consistent with the doji candles visible on the chart. There is support, but it is becoming thinner.
This slowdown is not dangerous on its own. The problem is that there are newly emerging pressure factors at the same time.
Miners, hidden variables of rising risk
The most undervalued change is occurring with Bitcoin miners.
The miner net position change indicator tracks the 30-day variation of Bitcoin supply held by miner wallets. The more negative the value becomes, the more it indicates that miners are continuing to sell Bitcoin.
On January 9, miners were reducing about 335 BTC. By January 23, this number surged to 2,826 BTC. This means that selling pressure increased more than eightfold in just two weeks.
The reason becomes clearer when looking at the network fee situation.
According to BeInCrypto analysts, monthly fees on the Bitcoin network have significantly decreased. In May 2025, miners earned about 194 BTC in monthly fees. By January 2026, this figure steadily decreased to around 59 BTC. This is a reduction of about 70% in fee income.
With declining fees, miner margins are shrinking. If profits decrease, miners are likely to sell Bitcoin to cover operating costs. This phenomenon is indeed occurring. However, the selling pressure is not yet strong.
Meanwhile, the movements of whales have begun to slow down. The number of whale addresses steadily increased from January 9 to January 22, then slowed down and showed a slight decrease. This suggests initial distribution rather than aggressive selling, but it adds pressure created by miners.
The current market depends on price levels.
Bitcoin price, decision to resolve the stalemate
Currently, Bitcoin needs to record a daily closing price above $91,000 from around $89,500. This means it must rise about 1.79% and recover the 20-day moving average line. If this trend appears, it signals that short-term downward pressure is easing and buying power is recovering.
The risk signals have come closer.
If the daily closing price drops below $88,500 (about a 1% decline), Bitcoin will fall below the rising support line. If this situation occurs, the downward target opens up quickly.
The key Bitcoin price levels to watch are first $84,300, and then the expected upward target around $77,300. If the buying pressure from long-term holders slows down and the selling pressure from miners continues, this price level may become increasingly important.
