When $280 million was liquidated across the network within 24 hours and the spot ETF saw a rare net inflow of $110 million, the market is using a 'blunt knife' to carve a bullish gravestone at $3000. This article combines the latest on-chain data from January 25, option skew, and the main market to analyze whether ETH's 'calm period' at $2960 is a rose bottom or a breakup bottom, and provides a replicable 'tea money short' roadmap—go with the trend, use a light position, and run fast; staying alive allows for the next round.
1. Market sketch: After the waterfall comes the 'sleeping pill'
On the morning of January 23, ETH plummeted 18% from $3400 in just 6 hours, piercing down to $2864, marking the largest single-day drop since August of last year. In the following 48 hours, the price lay flat in the $2960 ±20 range as if injected with a tranquilizer, with the 4-hour Bollinger middle band trending down, while the volatility index (DVOL) fell from 92 to 78—a typical 'volatility collapse'. More subtly, the Coinbase premium (US premium) narrowed from -120 bps to -20 bps, while the Korean premium (Kimchi premium) remained deep at -250 bps, as Asian retail investors continued to 'cut losses', and US funds began to 'pick up the knife'.
2. On-chain microscope: Who is buying, who is selling, who is sleeping
1. Exchange balances: In the past three days, a net outflow of 217,000 ETH in spot markets seems to indicate 'bullish withdrawal', but a closer look at the address labels shows that 68% flowed into Cumberland and Jump OTC cold wallets, belonging to 'market maker transport' rather than hoarding coins.
2. Derivatives: The perpetual contract funding rate rebounded from -0.021% to -0.005%. Shorts still dominate, but the narrowing of the 'negative premium' indicates some short covering in the short term; meanwhile, the open interest (OI) for the $2800 put options surged by 45% over three days, becoming the biggest 'pain point'.
3. Staking pool: The number of withdrawals from the beacon chain has dropped to 0, but new staking queues have risen to 14 days, with APR dropping to 2.9%, and the staking arbitrage's support effect on spot prices continues to weaken.
In one sentence: The spot market lacks 'true bulls', contract shorts 'refuse to leave', and staking yields 'cannot hold', the consolidation at 2960 is just the 'energy accumulation area' for shorts.
3. Macroeconomic background: The Federal Reserve 'stays put', and risk assets 'can’t go high or low'
On January 29, the FOMC maintained the interest rate, and the dot plot suggests only one rate cut in 2026. The dollar index rebounded to 104.6, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is 4.24%, and gold fell back to $4080. The marginal liquidity tightening caused the high Beta ETH to lose its biggest support, 'dollar weakness'. At the same time, the 'Digital Asset Strategic Reserve' executive order that the Trump administration may sign on February 15 only mentioned BTC and did not involve ETH, leading to market expectations being dashed, and the last straw for the bulls being removed.
4. Technical deconstruction: Why is 2960 the 'bottom line for a scumbag'?
4. 4-hour structure: Since the rebound from 2864, highs have been gradually declining (2995→2980→2972), while lows have not refreshed, creating the shape of a 'descending triangle', with a measured target of $2760.
5. Micro market: Binance depth wall shows that 30,000–3020 dollars has a cumulative short of 34,000 ETH, while buy orders are only 19,000; conversely, there are 27,000 ETH support between 2920–2900, and breaking below creates a vacuum area directly reaching 2835.
6. Options pain point: The largest open interest is concentrated on the $2800 puts, and market makers have a negative gamma exposure. The closer the price approaches $2800, the more explosive the negative gamma becomes, creating a 'short accelerator' effect.
Technical signals and on-chain data resonate: 2960 is not the bottom, but a buffer before 'breaking the bottom'.
5. Operational strategy: Weekend tea money sessions, surviving is the hard logic
Direction: Sell on rallies
Entry: Accumulate in batches in the range of 2975–2985, add positions if it breaks 2960.
Stop loss: 3025 (daily closing price)
Target: 2920 first level, 2860 second level, 2835 ultimate
Position: No more than 10% of total funds, leverage ≤ 3 times
Time: Liquidity is thin over the weekend, slippage may be $5–8, limit orders are better than market orders.
Mindset: Earning a couple of hundred dollars in tea money, don’t fantasize about making it all back in one go; if 3025 is taken, it indicates the triangle has failed, decisively stop loss, don’t hold positions, don’t add to positions, don’t average down.
6. Scenario simulation: Three possible 'Monday openings'
A. Scenario 1 (Probability 55%): The U.S. market on Sunday night anticipates 'rate cuts', ETH rebounds to test 3000 and faces pressure again. On Monday, if it breaks below 2920, shorts take profit.
B. Scenario 2 (Probability 30%): Sudden good news (like SEC simultaneously approving staking ETFs), breaking through 3025 with volume, stop loss on short positions, reverse to chase long positions, targeting 3080–3120.
C. Scenario 3 (Probability 15%): Continue to shrink and hover at 2960, volatility drops below 70, hold short positions but reduce leverage, waiting for direction after the U.S. stock market opens on Tuesday.
7. Three heartfelt words for the 'Old Li's'
7. The market won’t go wrong; what’s wrong is that we added filters to the market.
8. Stop loss is not about admitting mistakes, it's about paying 'insurance premiums'; who dares to hit the road without insurance?
9. Turning off the computer over the weekend to spend time with your wife and kids is the ultimate strategy to hedge against life's biggest 'tail risks'.
Conclusion: Earn back the tea money and return life to yourself
The market can consolidate, but life cannot lie flat. Is the 'scumbag' at 2960 going to change their mind or is it the night before breaking up? The market will provide the answer; all we can do is put on our stop-loss helmets and walk through this tightrope with a light position.
If you are also in a dilemma at this position:
10. Do you think ETH will break 2920 first, or return to 3025?
11. Will you watch the market over the weekend or completely shut down to spend time with family?
12. At what price is your 'tea money short' hanging?
The comment section is waiting for your share, complaints, and to exchange a word of 'happy stop loss'.
Like and share to let the 'Old Li's' know—they are not alone in holding positions. #灰度提交BNB ETF申请 #美国伊朗如何影响市场 #ETH走势分析 #达沃斯世界经济论坛2026 #特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 $BTC
