On Polymarket, the bets on the shutdown until January 31 have already soared to 78%.
That's a lot — traders aren't pricing in such probabilities for no reason.
What's happening
1. Democrats are threatening to block the budget bill.
The reason is the funding for DHS (Department of Homeland Security).
The scandals surrounding ICE raids on migrants have raised the stakes so much that Democrats don't want to vote 'as is.'
2. Trump himself is fueling expectations of a shutdown.
On January 10, he said directly:
“January 30 may see another shutdown.”
Last Thursday he repeated it again.
This is an important signal: when the president publicly discusses the possibility of a shutdown — it means he is either prepared for it or using it as leverage in negotiations.
Why the risk is so high
Politics looks like this now:
— Republicans want to tighten DHS, strengthen immigration rules, and not give in during negotiations.
— Democrats do not want to sign a document that legalizes the most egregious actions of ICE.
— Trump may intentionally not 'put out' the conflict, as a shutdown is a strong tool to push his agenda and show 'toughness'.
What to expect
▪️ If there is no agreement literally in a few days — the market will start to grab volatility.
▪️ Bonds react first, then — stocks and crypto.
▪️ If the shutdown drags on, the impact will come through economic data — many reports simply will not be released.
So far it looks like this:
The risk of a shutdown is real, fueled by political conflict, and the market is already sensing it.