Market Analysis: BTC/USDT and January's Macro Pressure
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a sharp correction this Sunday (25/01/2026), with Bitcoin (BTC) testing critical support levels in the region of US$ 86.000. The movement reflects a combination of technical liquidations and a macroeconomic scenario of risk aversion.
Fundamentals of the Recent Drop
Global Risk Aversion (Risk-off): The increase in geopolitical tensions and uncertainties about new trade tariffs has strengthened traditional safe-haven assets, such as gold, at the expense of risk assets.
Interest Rate Outlook (Fed): The probability of a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve has drastically fallen to around 2%, suggesting the maintenance of a restrictive monetary policy for a longer time.
Institutional Flow: Recently, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows exceeding US$ 390 million, signaling a pause in institutional contributions and profit-taking.
Leverage: The breaking of the psychological barrier of US$ 90.000 triggered a cascade of liquidations, totaling approximately US$ 900 million in the derivatives market.
Indicators and Reversal Signals
Despite the selling pressure, short-term technical indicators are beginning to point to extreme oversold conditions:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): On the 4-hour chart, the RSI reached historically low levels (below 10), which often precedes technical rebounds.
Support Zones: The region between US$ 84.200 and US$ 85.000 acts as an important long-term structural support. Maintaining the price above this level is essential to preserve the upward trend on the daily chart.
Technical Divergence: A bullish divergence is observed in the BTC/XAG pair (Bitcoin/Silver), suggesting that the asset may be finding a relative bottom against other reserve assets.