Last night, I had an in-depth conversation with a cutting-edge investor who reduced their position by 80%. They believe that BTC is losing its 'soul' and may even drop back to 20,000. The logic is very solid:
1️⃣ From 'countering fiat' to 'USD asset': BTC has been deeply tied to Wall Street and US Treasury bonds. Both China and Russia only buy gold, and allies prefer to buy US stocks. As a 'high-risk version of a USD plug-in', BTC has lost its independence and is no longer 'sexy' for large funds.
2️⃣ Great migration of computing power: AI has taken away the miners' jobs: AI returns far exceed mining, and computing power is shifting towards data centers. The decline in computing power leads to adjustments in mining difficulty and costs, and falling below the shutdown price (20,000 - 30,000) is not surprising historically.
Conclusion: When BTC changes from 'geek rebellion' to 'Wall Street's vassal', its certainty is less than that of US stocks, and the premium logic is collapsing.
Do you think this is alarmist or a harsh truth?
$BTC