BITCOIN IS BLEEDING - BUT MAYBE IT'S NOT THE BOTTOM YET?

1) NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

- NUPL is decreasing sharply but remains positive. Throughout Bitcoin's history, a true cycle bottom only forms when NUPL falls into negative territory – meaning most holders are in an unrealized loss state.

=> Currently: it's just "bleeding", not yet a "bottom".

2) Delta Growth Rate (Market Cap vs Realized Cap)

- This indicator has turned negative, indicating that speculative money is withdrawing.

- The market is beginning to re-evaluate based on intrinsic value; we will gradually face questions like "what is the value of $BTC?"

3) Some other data

- Bitcoin Apparent Demand has turned negative, showing a significant decline in buying demand compared to mid-2025.

- Whales holdings 1y change have started to turn negative, meaning large whales are gradually distributing after a strong accumulation cycle previously.

- Dolphin (100–1000 BTC) 30-day % change is negative, with the average holder group also beginning to take profits.

- Coinbase Premium Index remains deeply negative, reflecting that investors in the US/ETF are weaker than globally => a form of distribution is taking place.

4) Comparing the "bottom" points of 2018 and 2022

*The bottoms of 2018 and 2022 both had:

– Deeply negative NUPL

– Exhausted Demand

– Large holders stopping selling

– Sideways accumulation for many months

Currently in 2026:

– NUPL is not yet negative

– Demand remains negative

– Whales are still selling

5) Personal conclusion

- Personally, based on the data, I still believe the bottom for this cycle of $BTC has not yet formed.

- In the short to medium term, there is still potential for recovery, but the selling pressure from most participants is quite significant, causing considerable pressure.

- What are your thoughts?