【Yen, approaching the policy red line】
The latest signals from top asset management institutions are worth paying close attention to.
Masahiko Loo, a senior fixed income strategist at State Street Global Advisors, clearly pointed out:
The probability of a joint intervention in the exchange rate by the United States and Japanese authorities is significantly rising.
The trigger point is not baseless; rather, it is a historically validated signal —
The Japanese Ministry of Finance has initiated an 'interest rate check'.
Based on past experience, interest rate checks are often not the end point but a warning action before intervention.
If no substantial intervention follows the check, how will the market typically react?
There is only one answer:
Speculative funds will further pressure the yen, testing the authorities' bottom line and determination.
This time, the market's understanding of the 'bottom line' is exceptionally clear.
Loo bluntly stated:
162 is the critical watershed.
This was the price range when the last official intervention occurred, and it is also the current market's default 'policy red line'.
When the exchange rate approaches this level, the nature of the game will change —
It will no longer be a simple trend trade,
But a direct confrontation between funds and policy.
For the global market, the yen is not just a foreign exchange issue.
Once the expectation of intervention heats up,
The flow of funds in interest rates, risk assets, and the crypto market may all be simultaneously disturbed.
Going forward, the focus is no longer on 'whether there will be intervention',
But rather —
Who blinks first.
This phase is often the true eve of a significant market movement.
