⚡️ Friends, the recent trend of Bitcoin has been a bit nerve-wracking. Although many people shouted that a bull market was coming at the beginning of the year, it has clearly lacked momentum after rising.
Recently, several technical experts have started to warn that 2026 might turn into a bear market. One analyst named Titan of Crypto even directly stated that we might see around $58,000.
When this was said, many old players felt a tightening in their hearts. Is their concern justified? Actually, there are several signals that are raising alarms.
First, from a technical perspective, the MACD on the monthly chart has shown a bearish dead cross, which historically often indicates that there will be a deeper mid-term pullback. Sometimes the drop can even exceed 50%. Currently, Bitcoin has already retreated from its high position at the beginning of the year, and some key support levels have also been broken, leading to a weakening of sentiment.
What is more noteworthy is the on-chain data that Glassnode points out, the price has already fallen below the 75% cost line (around $93,000). Simply put, more than three-quarters of holders in the market are currently in a state of unrealized loss. Once most people start losing money, the selling pressure tends to increase, and the rebound becomes more difficult.
Another important position is between $89,000 and $90,000, where many people bought in the past six months, which can be seen as a chip accumulation area and serves as a short-term psychological defense line. However, if this position is also lost, the next support worth paying attention to may have to go down to around $80,000.
There is still one very important point, the above trapped positions are actually quite heavy. Especially for those who bought at the high last year, once the price rebounds close to their cost price (around $98,000), many may want to sell quickly to break even, which creates natural pressure for the rise. Glassnode describes this structure as being very similar to the failed rebound in 2022 - every time it rises a little, selling pressure comes in.
However, there is always another voice in the market. Some believe that Bitcoin's past four-year cycle is failing because now there is a U.S. spot ETF, and more institutions and countries are participating, possibly shifting the nature of capital from short-term speculation to long-term allocation. According to this logic, a slow bull and long bull market are still expected, and some even call for a future target of $250,000.
In the end, the market has indeed reached a rather delicate stage. The next thing to watch is several positions: whether it can return above the $93,000 'cost line', whether the dense trading area around $89,000 can hold, and when it can effectively break through $99,000 to allow more people to start making money. All of these may determine whether there will be continued pullbacks or a gradual digestion of selling pressure before regaining strength.
In any case, the Bitcoin market is indeed becoming increasingly complex, with both cyclical warnings and new narratives of a long bull market. In this environment, perhaps maintaining a bit of caution and having more patience is a more prudent response.