Technical analysis for XRPUSDT on January 26, 2026, shows price action that attracts traders' attention. This asset recorded a surge of over 4% within 24 hours, nearing the daily high level at 1.9454. However, behind this sharp increase, there is a set of data that actually signals caution.
Short-Term Trend: Bullish Momentum with Signs of Exhaustion
On the intraday chart (H1 and 15 minutes), XRP is moving above the EMA 20 (1.8919), indicating strong short-term upward momentum. However, the RSI on the 15-minute chart is already approaching 70, an area considered overbought. This is an early signal that the rise could be running out of steam and may potentially correct.
Bearish Pressure at Higher Levels
When zooming out, the picture looks different. On the 4-hour and Daily charts, the price is still below the EMA 200 (around 1.94 - 2.29), which is the main resistance of the medium-term trend. This indicates that the larger trend is still leaning sideways to bearish. The Higher High pattern has not yet formed convincingly.
On-Chain Data & Market Sentiment: The Dark Side to Watch Out For
This is where the story becomes interesting. Data from Glassnode reveals several critical facts:
1. Extreme Negative CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) (-1.216B on 1D TF): The selling volume by market makers or large traders has consistently been more dominant than buying. This is a strong signal of distribution or selling pressure behind the scenes.
2. Long/Short Taker Ratio still above 1.3: Although positive, this ratio is starting to decline from its peak. Along with that, there has been a liquidation of Long positions (39.5K) which is much larger than Short (12.2K), indicating many bullish traders were stopped out during this rally.
3. Positive but Stable Funding Rate: A positive funding rate indicates a bullish bias among perpetual traders, but its value is not too high, indicating excessive euphoria.
Conclusion & Strategy: Don't Rush into FOMO
Today's 4% rise is more likely a rally in a consolidation series or a dead cat bounce rather than the start of a true bullish reversal. The key confirmation of a trend change is if the price can close the daily candle above and sustain in the EMA 200 zone (around 1.94).
For Traders:
· Swing Trader / Investor: Wait for confirmation of a break and close above the 1.94-1.95 resistance. Without that, the risk of a bull trap remains high. A safer accumulation area may be seen near the 1.81-1.83 support.
· Short-term Trader: Take advantage of the upward momentum with a target at 1.945 - 1.95, but be cautious of reversal signals in smaller TFs if RSI enters overbought. Tight stop loss is highly recommended.
The potential for XRP to rally further still exists, but a safe entry requires patience. On-chain data gives a warning: behind the green chart, massive selling pressure is happening. Be wise to read the signals, not just the color.