The RIVERUSDT chart today is like a tale of two sides of a coin. On one side, this coin shows monster performance with a rise of 1.765% in 30 days. On the other side, on-chain data and multi-time frame analysis signal that a sharp correction may be just around the corner.
Spectacular Rally with Fragile Roots
RIVER is in a parabolic momentum. On the 1-Day (1D) chart, the price (74.9) is still holding above the EMA 200 (68.1), confirming a strong medium-term bullish trend. However, a closer look reveals fragility:
· On the 4-hour chart (4H), the price has fallen below EMA 20 (76.9) and even touched EMA 50 (77.2). This is the first sign of weakening short-term momentum.
· RSI on 4H TF is at 40.6, indicating conditions approaching oversold in that timeframe, a contradiction to the large rally.
Danger Signals from Within: Worrying On-Chain Data
This is where the story turns dark. Data from glassnode gives a red warning:
1. CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) Positive, But...: Although positive, CVD on TF 1D (+179M) is not proportional to the very large trading volume. This indicates that large purchases (accumulation) may have drastically decreased.
2. EXTREME NEGATIVE Funding Rate: A very negative funding rate (reaching -1.87%) is a very bearish signal. This means traders with dominant short positions (expecting price drops) are paying premiums to long traders. Typically, this occurs when the market is overbought and reversal expectations are high.
3. Massive Short Liquidation: A short position liquidation of 490.3K occurred, far exceeding longs (301.1K). This often serves as the "last fuel" for a pump before a major dump, as short liquidations force closing purchases that artificially drive prices up.
Multi-Time Frame Analysis: Where is the Next Direction?
· Long-Term Trend (1D+): Still BULLISH. As long as the price remains above EMA 200 (68.1), the upward structure is intact.
· Medium-Term Trend (4H): CAUTION / BEARISH BIAS. A breach below EMA 20 and declining RSI signal a correction. The first correction target is in the support zone 66.1 (24-hour Low) and EMA 200 (68.1).
· Short-Term Action (15M-1H): VOLATILE. The market is searching for direction after the pump. Beware of a dead cat bounce before falling deeper.
Conclusion for Traders: This is a Time to Be Cautious, Not FOMO
The RIVER rally has entered a very risky phase and is ripe for correction. The combination of extreme negative funding rate and large short liquidations is a classic recipe for a reversal.
Strategy:
· HOLDERS / SWING TRADER: Consider taking partial profits on positions that are very profitable. Use 66.1 - 68.1 as areas for averaging or re-entry if sustained.
· SHORT-TERM / DAY TRADER: Avoid long entries at current levels. Risk-reward is not attractive. It’s better to wait for recovery confirmation above 77.0 (EMA 20 4H) or look for short opportunities if support 66.1 breaks.
· WATCHLIST: If a correction occurs and the price successfully rebounds strongly from support 68.1 (EMA 200) with high volume, it could be an early signal for a healthier continuation rally.
Final message: Don't be dazzled by the fantastic green percentages. The data behind the scenes often tells a more honest story. RIVER needs healthy consolidation to continue its upward trend sustainably.