✍️$Gold and silver are racing to new all-time highs, so most traders believe that Bitcoin will eventually follow suit. However, things are rarely that easy. If you have spent enough time in this market, you will understand what supply squeeze and price suppression really mean. Once the market drains traders’ confidence, exhausts them, and makes them give up and walk away—that is usually when the real breakout happens.
Moreover, when gold rises, it is often a sign that confidence in the USD is declining. Bitcoin tends to lag, but its volatility and upside magnitude are far greater. The longer the compression phase lasts, the more explosive the eventual move.
On-chain data shows:
The amount of BTC held on exchanges has dropped to only around 2.5–2.9 million BTC, indicating a clear contraction in supply.
About 59% of total BTC supply has not moved for over one year. In January, both the 1–2 year holder group and the over-5-year holder group saw balance growth (the over-5-year group added approximately 95,000 BTC). This indicates that long-term participants are using this period of market frustration to accumulate, not exit.
The Puell Multiple is currently fluctuating around 0.87–0.89. When this metric is below 1, miner revenue is below the annual average, signaling significant financial pressure after the 2024 Halving. Many small miners are capitulating or shifting toward AI infrastructure. Miner capitulation often acts as a confirmation of an accumulation zone before a major bullish phase, as selling pressure from newly issued supply is reduced.
At this point, the most important thing for traders to do is simply wait.
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