On January 26, Bitcoin fell below the key level of $87,000 during the early hours, marking a new low since January 14, with a cumulative drop exceeding 10%. This trend not only shattered market expectations for a 'rebound rally' after the New Year but also triggered deeper concerns among investors about whether this bull market has peaked. Currently, the crypto market is filled with cautious and even pessimistic sentiments, with several well-known analysts lowering their expectations, sparking an intense discussion about 'where the bottom is.'
Technical levels have been breached: from the shattered dream of $100,000 to the defense line of $80,000
Looking back at recent trends, Bitcoin has failed to effectively break through the psychological barrier of $100,000 since the beginning of the year. Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio's remarks are quite representative—this professional, who initially expected the New Year's momentum to push prices past $100,000 and 'catch up with other risk assets,' has now chosen to 'temporarily exit all markets.' His confusion is not unique: from a higher time frame (HTF), the pattern is indeed not ideal, and the price is likely to fall further.
Technical analyst Merlijn The Trader points out through a cost distribution heat map that around $84,000 is an important dense trading area from the past six months, with approximately 940,000 Bitcoins traded in this range. This position forms the first line of defense in the short term. If this defense line is lost, $80,000 will become a critical test — historical data shows that about 127,000 Bitcoins were bought in that price range previously, and this relatively thin holding volume means that once it breaks, the downward space could open up quickly.
What further worries the bulls is the "bear market signal" issued by analyst Titan of Crypto: Bitcoin has seen a bearish crossover in its MACD on a two-month level cycle, and historical experience indicates that similar technical formations often trigger a pullback of 50% to 64%. If calculated accordingly, from the current peak of $109,000, the potential bottom could drop to $58,000 or even lower.
Divergent institutional views: From cautious observation to bear market warnings
In the face of the current situation, institutional investors' strategies have shown significant divergence. Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske has chosen to remain inactive, listing a series of key support levels to watch: $80,000, $74,000, $70,000, $58,000, and $50,000 and below. His logic is clear and cold: short-term fluctuations are not the core focus, if prices rebound, hold and gradually diversify allocation; if deep pullbacks occur, view them as opportunities to increase positions. This "trading space for time" approach is essentially waiting for the market to provide clearer bottom signals.
In contrast, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone's warning is more pessimistic. He focuses on Ethereum, believing it is "trending towards the lower end of the $2,000 to $4,000 range since 2023" and bluntly states that "the risk of falling below $2,000 is greater than the possibility of rising back above $4,000, especially with renewed stock market volatility." This judgment is worth noting — Ethereum is often seen as a risk appetite barometer for the crypto market, and if it continues to weaken, it could drag down the entire market's valuation center.
Macroeconomic fog: Trump's "TACO" and liquidity dilemma
In the context of the current decline, macro factors play an undeniable role. Crypto KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun's proposed "Trump TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)" phenomenon resonates: despite Trump's "retreat" on tariffs and other issues, the U.S. stock market has returned to its starting point of decline, but Bitcoin remains significantly below its starting drop position.
This "falling with the market but not rising with it" divergence reveals the structural dilemma currently facing the crypto market — the interest of outside funds in Bitcoin remains insufficient. Benson Sun predicts that future trends may unfold with wide fluctuations around the $85,000 to $95,000 range and reminds bulls to "not be rigid, but to focus on flexible trading."
Data on the liquidity front also supports this judgment. Although the Federal Reserve lifted the daily limit on permanent repurchase (SRP) of $500 billion in the December FOMC meeting, theoretically allowing banks to borrow money from the Fed using Treasury bonds without restriction, the market does not seem to have received a sustained boost in risk appetite as a result. The spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow of $6.63 billion over the past five weeks, and BlackRock's crypto investment portfolio has surged from $54.77 billion at the beginning of the year to $102.09 billion, but this influx of funds seems more geared towards hedging rather than driving price increases.
Bottom exploration: Will $58,000 become a reality?
The discussion about the ultimate bottom is currently most concentrated around the $58,000 mark. This price level not only aligns with Titan of Crypto's technical analysis but also resonates with expectations from multiple analysts regarding a potential bear market in 2026. Historically, Bitcoin often reaches its bull market peak 12-18 months after a halving, and the halving in April 2024 means that the theoretical cycle top could occur between mid-2025 and early 2026.
If this cycle pattern remains valid, the current market may be experiencing a "late-stage bull market" with significant fluctuations. VanEck previously predicted that after the first peak of the cycle (around $180,000), BTC could see a 30% pullback, while altcoins might face a drop of up to 60%. Although this target price now seems overly optimistic, its judgment regarding "summer market consolidation" may be worth referencing.
Overall, the current market is in a critical period of directional choice. The $84,000-$80,000 range constitutes a short-term support area; if it can be effectively defended, the market is expected to recover sentiment amidst fluctuations; if the psychological level of $80,000 is lost, the historical dense zones around $58,000 and even $50,000 will become the next stage of testing. For investors, Chris Burniske's strategy may provide some reference: remain patient until the trend is clear, treating deep pullbacks as opportunities for positioning rather than reasons for panic.
The harsh reality of the crypto market is that it always swings between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism. When "$100,000" turns from a consensus target into an unattainable high ground, and when traders choose to "temporarily exit all markets", it may well signify the market's re-pricing and search for a new equilibrium. Regardless of whether the bottom ultimately lands at $80,000, $70,000, or $58,000, what allows one to traverse the cycle is not the luck of perfectly timing the bottom, but a clear awareness of risk boundaries and a commitment to long-term value.
What do you think about the current Bitcoin trend? Where do you believe the bottom will fall? Feel free to share your views in the comments section, and don't forget to like, share, and follow us for the latest in-depth analysis of the crypto market! #Strategy增持比特币 #美国伊朗对峙 #美联储利率决议 #币安将上线特斯拉股票永续合约 #美股七巨头财报 $BTC
