1. Institutional capital withdrawal: Crypto funds faced a "black week"

  • Content summary: According to CoinShares' latest data, digital asset investment products recorded a net outflow of $1.73 billion last week, the largest single-week outflow record since November 2025. Among them, Bitcoin products saw an outflow of $1.09 billion, while Ethereum experienced an outflow of $630 million.

  • Analyst interpretation: This data is an extremely strong short-term bearish signal. Institutions are reducing risk exposure through ETF channels, indicating that traditional finance (TradFi) feels pessimistic about the recent macroeconomic environment (especially the failure of interest rate expectations). This directly led to BTC breaking the key support level of $90,000.

2. MicroStrategy (Strategy Inc.) increases holdings against the trend: buying more as prices drop

  • Summary: Despite the market downturn, MicroStrategy (MSTR) still spent $267 million last week to purchase around 2,900 BTC. Currently, its total holdings have exceeded 712,000.

  • Analyst interpretation: This is a key 'confidence anchor point'. Although institutional ETFs are selling off, corporate holders led by Saylor are still executing a 'long-term holding' strategy. This provides the market with a foreseeable bottom support range, but also means that short-term price fluctuations will mainly be dominated by the liquidation in the derivatives market, rather than spot buying.

3. Ethereum whales awaken and quantum defense layout

  • Summary:

    1. An Ethereum whale address dormant for 9 years has awakened, transferring $397 million worth of ETH to the Gemini exchange, raising concerns about selling pressure.

    2. The Ethereum Foundation officially establishes a 'Post-Quantum Security Team' and sets up a $1 million research grant.

  • Analyst interpretation: Large transfers by whales are often a 'prelude to selling', which explains why ETH has recently performed worse than BTC (with a drop of nearly 10%). However, from a technical perspective, the foundation's layout for quantum computing defense is a key step for Layer 1's long-term survival, indicating that Ethereum is preparing for extreme security challenges in the next 5-10 years.

4. Regulatory developments: SEC will dismiss the Gemini Earn lawsuit

  • Summary: As investors receive full compensation, the SEC is expected to 'dismiss with prejudice' the lawsuit against Gemini Earn, ending this three-year legal dispute.

  • Analyst interpretation: This is a significant positive for the DeFi and CeFi lending sectors. It marks the clearing of compliance minefields left over from the last bull-bear transition cycle (2022-2023). The elimination of regulatory uncertainty typically paves the way for the revival of compliant yield products.

5. 'Cliff Unlock' warning: $585 million worth of tokens are about to flood the market

  • Summary: This week the market will see a large unlocking amounting to approximately $585 million. Mainly focused on projects such as Hyperliquid (HYPE), Sui (SUI), and Optimism (OP).

  • Analyst interpretation: In the context of liquidity tightening (see news 1), large-scale unlocking is extremely dangerous. Especially 'cliff unlocks' (one-time releases), which can easily breach the liquidity pool of tokens in a short time, causing price flash crashes.

🔓 Key token unlocking monitoring

This week, the tokens to watch out for are Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Optimism (OP).

  • Tokens: Hyperliquid (HYPE) & Sui (SUI)

  • Unlock type: Cliff Unlock

  • Potential impact:

    • HYPE: Although the DEX trading volume of Hyperliquid has reached new highs recently, with the market's risk-averse sentiment, early investors have a strong willingness to take profits. A 15%-20% selling pressure test is expected within 24-48 hours after unlocking.

    • OP: As a leading Layer 2 asset, OP's continuous unlocking has become the norm, but this unlocking combined with ETH's weak performance may cause its exchange rate (OP/BTC) to further decline.

  • Technical analysis:

    • HYPE: Bearish towards the support level, if the market lacks momentum for a rebound, it may retest previous lows.

    • SUI: Need to pay attention to support near $3.50 (assumed price range), if the unlocking volume is too large it may briefly break below.

🚨 The above content is for collection and organization only and does not constitute investment advice.