#FedWatch
Everyone looks at the rate.
That is the bait. 🎣
The Fed moves something deeper: expectations.
And that's where the market usually loses money. 🧠
When the Fed "pauses", the retail breathes.
When it "cuts", the retail celebrates. 🎉
But the damage —or the opportunity— is almost never in the headline. 📰❌
Data that few truly follow:
monetary policy does not end at the rate, it continues in the balance. 🧾
As long as there is liquidity drain (QT), the system is not loose.
It is contained. 🔒
Although the speech sounds nice. 😌
Another uncomfortable layer:
the Fed speaks in public to calm… 🎙️
and adjusts in private to control systemic risks. 👀
Bank liquidity, repo market, long bonds,
a term premium that does not forgive the naive. ⚖️
That's why many "buy the news"
and then do not understand why the market does not respond as promised.
The real effect always arrives with a delay. ⏳
Months, not days.
And watch out for this 👁️
when the Fed seems less aggressive,
it's not because the problem has been solved.
It's because it has already manifested elsewhere. 🧊
More expensive credit.
Weaker consumption.
Silent stress. 🌫️
The market does not break when rates rise.
It breaks when everyone assumes they no longer matter. 💥
That's where FedWatch becomes dangerous:
it makes you look at the gesture… 🤏
and not the structure. ♟️
In the end, the Fed does not tell you what to buy.
It tells you when not to trust the consensus. 🎯
And if you pay attention…
the most serious signals
never come with applause. 🕶️
$BTC
$USDC
