Last Friday, we witnessed unexpected movement in the currency market: the Japanese yen suddenly jumped strongly by more than 3.5 yen against the US dollar in a short time, confusing traders and igniting speculation.
🤔 The question everyone is asking:
Has the Bank of Japan secretly intervened again?
📌 No clear evidence of intervention (so far)
When the official data was released on Monday, it became clear that the Japanese current account surplus is expected to decrease by about 630 billion yen.
And although the number is larger than expected, it is still much smaller than previous interventions that exceeded a trillion yen, so many analysts were not convinced.
Yuichiro Takai (Tokyo Tanshi): The number is too small to confirm the existence of intervention.
Tsuyoshi Ueno (NLI Research): Fluctuations of hundreds of billions of yen are common, and the government likely did nothing.
So why did the yen jump so strongly?
🔥 The real reason: American "currency check" rumors
During the New York session, reports spread that U.S. officials are conducting a "currency check," implying the possibility of a joint intervention between the United States and Japan.
And this alone was enough to move the market quickly.
📌 Important reminder:
The last joint intervention between the U.S. and Japan to support the yen was in 2011.
Why is joint intervention so important?
Because the message here will be very strong:
"Stop betting against the yen."
This could be a severe warning for yen sellers, even if there is no actual intervention.
Japanese officials create ambiguity
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki refused to give clear answers, increasing uncertainty.
Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said:
"Japan and the United States are in close communication and will act according to agreements."
This statement did not deny intervention, but it did not confirm it either.
Psychological warfare in the market
The market now looks like a mind game:
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda reiterates that interest rates will rise, but implementation is delayed.
The yen is moving violently.
Traders are anxious and wondering:
"Who dares to intervene first?"
Some forecasts say that Japan has not intervened since July when USD/JPY reached 161.95.
And if Japan intervenes again, it may have to raise interest rates early, which is a significant change.
In summary:
Until the official data is released on January 30, everything remains open.
But what is certain now:
🔥 Traders are on high alert
National teams may intervene at any moment to eliminate aggressive short positions on the yen.
The story is not over yet, and the next step may surprise everyone.
Top 5 suitable hashtags:
#JPY #forex #Macro #CurrencyIntervention #usdjpy
📊 These currencies are on a strong rise: 👇
💎 $AXL
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