😱🚨 FED DECISION NIGHT: NO RATE MOVE EXPECTED — ALL EYES ON POWELL
Markets are almost certain the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady tonight, with odds above 97%. After a series of recent rate cuts, benchmark rates are now sitting in the 3.5%–3.75% range, and investors expect a pause.
🔍 What the Fed is watching
Following three straight rate cuts, analysts believe the Fed will step back and assess incoming data. WSJ’s Fed insider Nick Timiraos noted that policymakers are in “wait-and-observe mode,” suggesting that only a major jobs slowdown or a sharp inflation drop would justify further cuts soon.
🎤 Powell is the real catalyst
Tonight’s spotlight is firmly on Jerome Powell. Beyond rates, markets are listening closely to how he addresses the ongoing DOJ investigation tied to him. Powell recently clarified that the probe isn’t about Fed renovation costs, but rather about interest rate decisions—a sensitive topic.
⚡ Trump angle — will Powell respond?
The biggest wildcard: Will Powell push back against Trump?
Until now, Powell has avoided direct confrontation, but a recently released video showed his most assertive tone yet. Whether that stance continues during press questions could move markets.
📊 What comes next
A policy shift this month is unlikely. Any real clues may instead emerge in March’s dot plot, where future rate expectations become clearer. Tonight’s statement language will still matter, signaling whether the Fed leans hawkish or dovish.
Volatility is loading.
Macro, politics, and crypto are colliding.
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