Solana has clearly been in a downtrend at the macro level for several months, pressured by overall market weakness and reduced risk, resulting in this altcoin struggling to regain momentum continuously since early September
However, the upcoming month could be a crucial turning point, as both institutional and retail investors are beginning to have a more positive outlook on Solana's price this February.
Institutions in Thailand are confident in Solana
Demand from institutions for Solana remains strong, even as prices have softened recently. From early January to January 23, Solana saw inflows of up to 92.9 million USD, making SOL the second-highest asset in terms of institutional investment during that period, only behind Bitcoin. This position indicates increasing confidence among major investors.
This trend strengthens further on a weekly basis. In the week ending January 23, Solana became the only major altcoin with net inflows, while other major assets experienced outflows. This divergence highlights Solana's strong image among institutional investors and indicates ongoing support into February.
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Retail investors and long-term holders have shown patience. HODL Waves data indicates a significant increase in holdings between 3 to 6 months. Within just 48 hours, the proportion of this group in the total Solana supply increased from 21% to 24%, primarily consisting of investors who began holding since October 2025.
Many holders in this group are currently at a loss. However, they choose to hold instead of selling at a loss. Such behavior often reflects expectations of recovery. Reluctance to sell during downturns helps reduce supply pressure and supports price stability.
Momentum indicators are beginning to align with this improved sentiment. The Chaikin Money Flow has recently moved into positive territory above the zero line, marking the first positive shift since early October. CMF tracks the capital flowing in and out of the asset using price and trading volume.
When the CMF is positive, it indicates that net capital is flowing back into Solana. This change reflects renewed demand and improved confidence. Combined with strong institutional participation and holder confidence, it supports a constructive outlook for the upcoming month.
Currently, Solana is trading near 127 USD, maintaining support levels above 116 USD overall. This area has previously served as a significant base during past volatility. Although SOL remains below the long-term downtrend line, price movements have become more stable, reducing the immediate risk of a downturn.
Breaking the downtrend now seems more feasible considering supporting factors, as February has consistently been a strong month for Solana. On average, SOL has returned about 38% during February, making it one of the best-performing months historically.
If seasonal strength occurs again, Solana may move up to resistance at 147 USD, which is considered a critical confirmation area. If this resistance can be turned into support, it will signal a successful recovery. From that point, SOL may target a level of 167 USD and a broader goal to reclaim levels above 200 USD in the next cycle.
The bearish scenario remains relevant if conditions worsen. If interest in buying cannot be maintained or if faced with macroeconomic pressures again, prices may be forced down. If the price breaks below 116 USD, SOL could face further downward adjustment opportunities. However, in this case, Solana could drop to around 106 USD or even below 100 USD, which would invalidate the bullish assumption.
