A Trading analyst predicts Bitcoin could plunge to $45,000 and has shared the timeline for when the drop might happen.
As Bitcoin $BTC tries to push back above the $90,000 resistance level a trading expert believes a pullback could be on the horizon in the months ahead.
According to an outlook by TradingShot shared on TradingView on January 28 Bitcoin price action is starting to resemble the 2022 bear market structure pointing to a potential decline toward the $45,000 range.
The analysis draws parallels between Bitcoin daily chart in 2022 and its current 2026 price structure highlighting how reactions around key moving averages are lining up almost one for one. Bitcoin has already been rejected at the 100-day moving average similar to what happened in March 2022 before the last major leg of the bear market.
At the moment, price is moving toward a test of the 200-day moving average, which previously served as the final resistance before a deeper breakdown. During the 2022 cycle Bitcoin briefly found stability after the MA100 rejection retested support, and then pushed up into the MA200 before selling off hard.
The projected 2026 path mirrors this same pattern with the bounce toward the long-term average expected to stall near the $100,000 level based on where the 200-day moving average currently sits.
Bitcoin key price levels to watch
If this rejection plays out the historical fractal points to a multi-stage decline through successive supports, first near $70,000, then around $51,000–$52,000, and ultimately toward $45,000, mirroring the proportional depth of the 2022 bear-market low.
By aligning the timing of the two cycles, the spacing between moving-average rejections and final lows suggests the sell-off could culminate in early October 2026 reinforcing the view that Bitcoin is tracking a broader cyclical pattern rather than reacting to a single indicator.
The outlook comes as Bitcoin climbed above $89,000 on Wednesday supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and soaring gold prices which bolstered demand for alternative assets.
The dollar hovered near four-year lows while gold hit record highs above $5,200 an ounce. However Bitcoin remained largely rangebound, trading between $88,000 and $89,000, as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
Traders are watching for signals on future interest rate cuts, with lower rates potentially boosting non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price update
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $89,892, up more than 2% over the past 24 hours. On a weekly basis, the asset has posted a gain of about 1.4%.
At the current price Bitcoin is sitting almost exactly on its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $90,133. This indicates the market is in a short-term balance zone: price is neither clearly breaking higher nor decisively losing support.
The more important signal comes from the 200-day SMA at $104,551, which is well above the current price. That gap suggests Bitcoin remains in a longer-term corrective or consolidation phase, with the broader trend still under pressure until price can reclaim that level.
The 14-day RSI at 45.46 reinforces this view. An RSI below 50 but not near oversold territory indicates weak to neutral momentum; selling pressure has eased, but buyers have not yet taken control. In simple terms Bitcoin is resting rather than rebounding.