Bitcoin’s selling pressure remains, but who’s selling — and who’s buying — is shifting beneath the surface. On-chain data highlights a clear behavioral split: retail traders have been panic-selling into drawdowns, while larger holders quietly accumulate. Short-term holders (STHs) have been offloading positions at a loss, expanding the share of STH supply in the red and signaling a capitulation-like phase. Net Realized Profit & Loss (NRPL) shows roughly $4.5 billion in realized losses — not from a single flash event, but from repeated downside spikes that point to prolonged stress rather than one-time panic (CryptoQuant). Smart money is behaving very differently. Whale wallets — defined here as addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC — increased collective holdings by 104,340 BTC, a 1.5% rise that pushed whale-held supply to roughly 7.17 million BTC, the highest level in four months (X). Complementing that, transfers larger than $1 million reached a two-month high in daily activity, indicating ongoing accumulation by larger players. What this split means for price action - Retail capitulation and repeated loss realization are pressuring price during rebounds: STHs selling below cost floods the market with supply and caps upside, especially around the $95,000–$100,000 zone (TradingView). - Buying has shown resilience around $85,000–$88,000, where buyers are absorbing sell pressure and keeping price range-bound rather than letting a sustained trend form. - For a decisive breakout, realized losses need to fall and spot demand must pick up — essentially, selling must exhaust and smart-money accumulation must be strong enough to flip supply dynamics. Context and historical parallels Similar NRPL “flushes” have appeared in 2018, 2020, and late 2022; the last comparable episode occurred when BTC traded near $28,000 and was followed by an extended basing period. Historically, recovery tends to follow once distribution peters out and accumulation absorbs excess supply — a pattern market participants will watch closely. Who’s selling, and why The recent losses are concentrated among short-term holders — traders who bought during failed breakouts above $90,000 and then sold below cost as volatility, ETF outflows, macro uncertainty, and leverage unwinds compounded. The 30-day realized net profit/loss measured in BTC slipped below zero in late 2025 — the first sustained negative reading since September 2023 — reinforcing that selling has been gradual and persistent rather than an abrupt shock. Key indicators to watch - Declining realized losses / NRPL stabilization (less selling pressure) - Continued whale accumulation and high-value transfers (smart-money demand) - Volume and spot inflows that can absorb supply above $95k–$100k - Signs of exhaustion in short-term holder selling, especially if STH supply in loss starts contracting Bottom line Bitcoin’s market structure is currently defined by distribution from reactive short-term traders and steady accumulation by large holders. That tug-of-war has produced wide consolidation: upside is capped until realized losses subside and spot demand strengthens, while renewed loss realization could reopen downside risk and invite another retest of lower levels. Disclaimer: This piece is informational and not investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries high risk — do your own research before making any decisions. © 2026 AMBCrypto. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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