Global markets started the year with a rare consensus: the maintenance of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, with no cuts or increases in the short term. This scenario had already been largely priced in by economic agents, reducing the immediate impact of monetary policy decisions. Nonetheless, recent movements of financial assets have been drawing analysts' attention for deviating from historical patterns.
There is a simultaneous appreciation of traditionally defensive assets, such as gold and silver, while equity indices of large companies (S&P 500) and smaller, higher-risk companies (Russell 2000) are also advancing. For part of the market, this 'anomaly' finds explanation in the gradual loss of strength of the dollar, which is showing initial signs of a broader depreciation process, encouraging the global reallocation of capital.
The movement is reinforced by structural concerns regarding the sustainability of the United States public debt. Unlike previous cycles of uncertainty, investors have not sought refuge in U.S. Treasury securities, raising questions about the dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency. Recent discussions even include the possibility of additional expansion of the U.S. monetary base for currency interventions, which could accelerate the currency's loss of value.
Historically, global currencies exhibit cycles of approximately a century, and there is a growing perception that the dollar may be entering an initial phase of relative decline. In this context, discussions about alternatives to the traditional monetary system are gaining traction. Although physical assets, such as precious metals, maintain relevance as a store of value, their low liquidity limits their application in an increasingly digital trade.
Thus, blockchain-based technologies emerge as candidates to play a central role in the future of global finance, while political and fiscal changes in the U.S. indirectly reduce the real weight of its debt.
